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OptionVotes
YES
NO
5424
4941
OptionProbability
$90
$80
$75
$70
$65
$64
$63
$62
$61
$60
$59
$58
$55
$100
$50
$120
$110
$150
$200
$25
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
76
62
57
46
38
18
16
9
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere
ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.
The ability to look for related markets in the API.
Linkable Comments
Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.
Ability to include a short message when resolving a market
Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.
Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction
Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f
Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.
Ability to short multiple choice answers
Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)
Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.
Short answers on free response questions
Graph showing the pool size of a market over time
A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.
Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time
We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.
Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)
A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)
Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")
Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature
Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)
Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)
Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)
Allow users to edit their comments
In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool
Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.
Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.
I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.
Zoom on the chart
Statements
Kelly
The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)
Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).
Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.
Trade fractional mana
When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.
Combinatorial Prediction Markets
Ability to delete comments.
Load pages faster (Android mobile).
More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.
Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)
Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.
Private messages to users
Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.
Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own
User create their own currency
Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.
Market Scanner (like stock screeners)
On-site mouseover previews for market & user links (advanced setting, or with held key)
23
19
14
12
10
7
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Sweden joins NATO
Death Stranding 2 out
Sailing skill releases for Runescape (Old School)
chat gpt 5 releases
Donald Trump OR Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
bitcoin reaches $80k usd on google
Bitcoin reaches $70k USD on google
the end of 2024
the end of 2025
Ides of March 2025
Jimmy Carter passes away or is murdered
Bitcoin reaches 100k usd
Chapter 1200 comes out and he still has not found the one piece
Pluton revealed or used or production started
Imu Face Reveal
Gta 6 comes out
manifold reaches 2000 engaged users
Taylor Swift married
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
King Charles no longer king of UK
ChatGPT 6 released
Officially supported Netflix app for Apple vision pro
OnePieceExplained reaches 50k subscribers https://www.youtube.com/@onepieceexplained
Noam chomsky passes away
kaidou is seen again in the manga
Kingdom Hearts 4 out
arlong is seen again in the manga
UFC 350 takes place
Datura Lacroye releases 3 original albums and 3 cover albums
Juice wrld's the party never ends will drop
ukraine joins NATO
nuclear detonation or test happens (jan 2024 onward)
dragon ball super manga ends
Manifold user charts on the Billboard 200
Sanji finds all blue
ukraine joins EU
donald trump spends a day in prison
manifold reaches 3000 engaged users
Pigs Fly
one of the straw hats dies
human sets foot on moon again
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
hunter biden serves a day in jail
Destiny retires from streaming
6th bitcoin halving
Windows 12 end of life date
someone reaches 1B in mana profit on Manifold
Buggy the clown dies
Singularity happens
Assange extradited to the USA
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
97
96
93
84
83
81
73
73
67
66
66
65
60
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
43
43
40
37
24
22
22
10
3
2
0
OptionProbability
Playable on Nintendo Switch 2 on release
Pikachu can be caught in-game
Choice of Fire, Water and Grass type starters (or same with secondary typing)
Two matching games released simultaneously
Titles are “Wind(s)” and “Wave(s)”
Features “traditional” turn based battles
Mega Evolution is a feature
At least one previously unused type combination receives a Pokémon
Has 5.0 or higher Metacritic user score 3 months after release (either entry)
At least 100 new Pokemon are introduced
DLC announced before launch date
Pokémon Home compatibility on launch
At least 3 previously unused type combinations receive a Pokémon
Has an online ranked ladder for doubles battles
The Stellar type is present in any way
Eevee receives a new evolution
Returns to a region from a previous main series game
At least 5 previously unused type combinations receive a Pokémon
Paradox Pokémon available before first DLC
Z-Moves are a feature
At least 151 new Pokemon are introduced
Features real time battles similar to Legends ZA
An entirely new Type is introduced
Playable on Nintendo Switch on release
Has any voice acting
Terastallization is a feature
Game is set in European inspired region
A change is made to the existing type effectiveness chart
All Pokemon are in the Game
Dynamax is a feature
Romance mechanics between the player and Pokemon
Released on or before 1st October 2025
Released on or before 1st January 2026
Released on or before 1st April 2026
Released on or before 1st July 2026
Released on or before 1st January 2027
100
100
100
100
100
94
82
81
78
78
50
48
46
36
36
30
24
23
22
21
17
17
15
11
11
10
8
8
6
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
windows 12 released by microsoft
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Joe Biden dies
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
Official sub 2:00 marathon
chat gpt 6 released
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Human steps foot on the moon again
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
The United States leaves NATO
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
100
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100
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87
81
81
74
73
72
65
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64
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59
52
51
51
50
45
41
36
31
29
28
26
17
7
6
OptionProbability
An executive order is issued and upheld requiring all federal agencies to use the new name?
It changes on Google Maps?
The Interior Secretary orders the name change?
NOAA officially adopts the new name in all nautical charts and documentation?
Louisiana changes the name on official state documents and maps?
USGS updates Geographic Names Information System, or G.N.I.S., to reflect the name change?
Florida changes name on official documents and maps
Texas changes the name on official state documents and maps?
The Department of Defense mandates the use of the new name in all military operations and documents?
Alabama changes name on official documents and maps?
A joint resolution of Congress (not from MTG) approves the name change?
The President requires states to change references to the name in order receive federal aid?
Legislation drafted by Marjorie Taylor Greene is passed by Congress and signed by the President?
The Foreign Names Committee of the US Bureau of Geographic Names approves a change to the official name?
The International Hydrographic Organization approves the change?
Mexico agrees to the name change through diplomatic channels?
A treaty between the U.S., Mexico, and Cuba establishes the new name?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
65
59
21
19
17
9
8
3
1
OptionProbability
#4 – “Off the Charts”
#3 – “Stalemate”
#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”
#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”
None of them
28
25
19
15
13
OptionProbability
Adéla
Leah Kate
Elita
Slayyyter
underscores
Alessi Rose
17
17
17
17
17
17
OptionProbability
It will have a Metacritic rating of 60% or higher one week post-release
It will debut at #1 on Spotify's global albums chart
Pitchfork will describe at least one song as pop-punk
It will have a four-letter title
It will have more than 12 songs
It will debut at #1 on the Billboard 200
Pitchfork will rate it higher than SOUR (>7.0)
It will have a Metacritic rating of 90% or higher one week post-release
Pitchfork will describe at least one song as a 'ballad'
Pitchfork will rate it higher than GUTS (>8.0)
65
61
61
50
50
50
50
50
50
48