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Prediction markets for Check Point

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.67%chance

774387144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6340

3474

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

3619769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11027

9758

🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️‍⚧️✨

Dec 31, 3:07 AMNov 2, 7:59 AM

68%chance

14215060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1458

686

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be shown alive on video between March 8th and April 1, 2026?

Mar 9, 10:28 PMApr 1, 12:00 AM

21.67%chance

518502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

526

Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 6, 12:09 AMJun 15, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

65445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

918

Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035

Jul 5, 6:08 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

23.93%chance

143846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1783

561

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Mar 25, 4:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.83%chance

261906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

212

IRAdvocates v. Apple resolved by EOY 2028?

Nov 29, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.15%chance

131678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1788

560

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.43%chance

111066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1321

757

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52%chance

10704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

1156

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM

62.64%chance

4411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

772

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