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Prediction markets for Chemicals

Will any chemical rocket engine reach 600 seconds of specific impulse by 2030?

Mar 22, 12:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.08%chance

172813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

790

Chemicals with unknown properties found to play large role in UFOs by 2050

Jun 7, 6:58 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.24%chance

13509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

944

Will the US Chemical Safety Board be eliminated by 2028?

Jun 24, 4:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.41%chance

8471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

48

In which of the following years will the net rate of chemical conversion of hydrogen into hydrocarbons be positive?

Nov 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9393

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2035

2030

35

26

21

9

Will Teflon or other related nonstick chemicals be effectively banned by law in the USA before the end of 2027?

Jun 29, 1:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.59%chance

16278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

36

In what year will Europe vote to ban PFAs ("forever chemicals")?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6204

OptionProbability

2023-2025

2026-2028

2032-2040

2029-2031

No ban before 2041

37

29

14

11

8

Will Teflon or other related nonstick chemicals be effectively banned by law in the USA before the end of 2026?

Jun 28, 8:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.38%chance

11169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

Will space travel still primarily be using chemical propulsion rockets by 2060?

Sep 23, 8:59 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

41.74%chance

798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

122

Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery?

Aug 27, 5:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Automated chemical synthesis to synthesize super rapalogs/mTOR inhibitors like TOR101 by EOY 2026, patents be damned

Nov 15, 8:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Relativistic quantum chemistry better defines Periodic-table deviations for chemicals 113 and higher by 2050

Jun 7, 6:43 AMJun 8, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

50

50

"Life is a self-sustaining chemical system capable of Darwinian evolution."

Jun 15, 7:21 AM

60

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