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Prediction markets for Chemistry

Can a neural net do end to end significant chemistry experiments before 2040?

Jun 22, 10:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98%chance

2928380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3209

876

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will Enceladus' hydrothermal vents be found to harbor life that is similar (i.e., ~ redox chemistry) to life on Earth's?

Aug 10, 2:42 AMOct 11, 6:30 PM

7713

OptionProbability

life will NOT even be found there in the first place.

NO, Life will be found and it will not have similar redox chemistry.

YES, Life will be found and it will have similar redox chemistry.

60

23

17

Will Lithium stop being the most popular rechargeable battery chemistry before 2100?

Jun 21, 3:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.19%chance

18415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

939

Chemistry Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket

Jan 2, 3:15 PMSep 29, 10:59 PM

3320

OptionProbability

Analytical Chemistry

Computational or Theoretical Chemistry

Physical Chemistry

Biochemistry or Chemical Biology

Medicinal, Drug or Pharmacology-related Chemistry

Nuclear chemistry

Battery-related Chemistry

Polymer chemistry

Organic Synthesis

Inorganic Chemistry

Catalysis

Metal Organic Frameworks (MOF)

Chemical Thermodynamics

Environmental or Climate-related Chemistry

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

24

24

24

24

24

24

UFO special materials found to be caused because of relativistic quantum chemistry by 2040

Jun 7, 7:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.5%chance

6238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

42

Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?

Oct 17, 2:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.73%chance

13227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

165

Quantum computer based in organic chemistry is created by 2050

Jun 8, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

10186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

947

When will Lithium stop being the #1 by USD market share rechargeable battery chemistry?

Sep 11, 1:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6153

OptionProbability

[2030-2035)

[2035-2040)

[2040-2050)

before 2030

[2050-2070)

[2070-2100)

not by 2100

32

21

21

9

7

6

5

Will Matt Kaeberlein win The Nobel Prize in Physiology & Medicine (or Chemistry) by 2065?

Jan 22, 10:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

43

will I get a 5 on ap chemistry?

May 4, 11:45 PMMay 15, 8:00 AM

66%chance

859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Relativistic quantum chemistry better defines Periodic-table deviations for chemicals 113 and higher by 2050

Jun 7, 6:43 AMJun 8, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

50

50

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