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Prediction markets for Chemistry

Can a neural net do end to end significant chemistry experiments before 2040?

Jun 22, 10:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98%chance

2928380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3209

876

Will I complete Atkins' Chemical Principles and Klein's Organic Chemistry Textbooks by September 2025?

Jun 1, 1:10 AMAug 30, 11:59 PM

11.52%chance

11763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

635

14

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

73.06%chance

14725

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1645

852

Will Enceladus' hydrothermal vents be found to harbor life that is similar (i.e., ~ redox chemistry) to life on Earth's?

Aug 10, 2:42 AMOct 11, 6:30 PM

7713

OptionProbability

life will NOT even be found there in the first place.

NO, Life will be found and it will not have similar redox chemistry.

YES, Life will be found and it will have similar redox chemistry.

60

23

17

Will Lithium stop being the most popular rechargeable battery chemistry before 2100?

Jun 21, 3:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.19%chance

18415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

939

UFO special materials found to be caused because of relativistic quantum chemistry by 2040

Jun 7, 7:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.5%chance

6238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

42

Quantum computer based in organic chemistry is created by 2050

Jun 8, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

10186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

947

Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?

Oct 17, 2:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

9155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344

166

When will Lithium stop being the #1 by USD market share rechargeable battery chemistry?

Sep 11, 1:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6141

OptionProbability

[2040-2050)

[2035-2040)

[2030-2035)

[2050-2070)

before 2030

[2070-2100)

not by 2100

25

24

23

8

7

6

6

Will Tesla significantly invest in new battery chemistry before a solid state battery EV is delivered in the US?

Jan 30, 9:24 PMFeb 7, 4:59 AM

59.84%chance

885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

112

Will Matt Kaeberlein win The Nobel Prize in Physiology & Medicine (or Chemistry) by 2065?

Jan 22, 10:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

43

Relativistic quantum chemistry better defines Periodic-table deviations for chemicals 113 and higher by 2050

Jun 7, 6:43 AMJun 8, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

50

50

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