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Prediction markets for China AI

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

Jan 30, 6:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.43%chance

95271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

377

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

184469

OptionProbability

2025-2027

2028-2030

2031-2033

2034-2036

2037-2040

29

26

21

13

11

A China Russia AI will indict president Joe Trump in Delaware

Sep 16, 3:10 PMMay 11, 4:59 AM

5.33%chance

193211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2196

846

Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?

Mar 31, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.65%chance

232073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

892

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

Jan 13, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.55%chance

311141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1565

471

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Sep 6, 6:28 AMDec 14, 4:59 AM

18.47%chance

15628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

892

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?

Jan 16, 7:13 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

5.36%chance

10402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

476

141

Will the US enact high-skilled immigration reform to help win the AI race against China?

Apr 7, 6:49 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

25%chance

14248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

343

83

Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?

Sep 24, 6:29 PMDec 31, 7:29 PM

45.87%chance

3201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?

Oct 21, 8:51 PMOct 28, 11:59 PM

36.7%chance

789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

55

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