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Prediction markets for China AI

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

217452

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

31

26

15

15

13

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

Jan 30, 6:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.14%chance

115323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2419

101

A China Russia AI will indict president Joe Trump in Delaware

Sep 16, 3:10 PMMay 11, 4:59 AM

5.33%chance

193211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2196

846

Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030

Jul 13, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.3%chance

202738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

713

Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?

Mar 31, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.98%chance

232163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

982

855

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Jun 26, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.1%chance

262110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1825

548

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.75%chance

171910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2681

374

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

Jan 13, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

351725

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

352

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?

Jun 27, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.89%chance

10995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1933

517

Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?

Sep 24, 6:29 PMDec 31, 7:29 PM

22.94%chance

4952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1833

546

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Sep 6, 6:28 AMDec 14, 4:59 AM

18.47%chance

15628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

892

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

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