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Prediction markets for China AI

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025

Oct 23, 11:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.77%chance

258387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3655

767

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

Jan 30, 6:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.43%chance

95271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

377

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

174409

Will the US ban AI models produced in China in 2025?

Mar 14, 2:00 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

10.84%chance

303802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2867

349

A China Russia AI will indict president Joe Trump in Delaware

Sep 16, 3:10 PMMay 11, 4:59 AM

8.33%chance

182461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

899

Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?

Mar 31, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.65%chance

232073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

892

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

Jan 13, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56%chance

27888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

622

Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?

Feb 10, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.02%chance

6607

OptionVotes

NO

YES

352

70

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Sep 6, 6:28 AMDec 14, 4:59 AM

19.25%chance

15578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

904

By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?

Jan 16, 7:13 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

5.36%chance

9382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

476

141

Will the US enact high-skilled immigration reform to help win the AI race against China?

Apr 7, 6:49 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

30.45%chance

13210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

97

[Carlini questions] US or China has created a public AI "Manhattan Project"

Mar 24, 1:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7131

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2029

By 2028

By 2027

By 2026

77

70

59

48

34

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