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Prediction markets for China AI

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

216569

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

29

24

20

15

12

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

Jan 30, 6:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.14%chance

115323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2690

372

A China Russia AI will indict president Joe Trump in Delaware

Sep 16, 3:10 PMMay 11, 4:59 AM

5.33%chance

193211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2196

846

Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?

Mar 31, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.65%chance

232073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

892

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

Jan 13, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.53%chance

321256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1676

419

Would a China-Taiwan war shorten AI timelines?

Sep 6, 6:28 AMDec 14, 4:59 AM

18.47%chance

15628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

892

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Feb 24, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.36%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?

Jan 16, 7:13 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

5.36%chance

10402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

476

141

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026

Apr 1, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

9385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

33

Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?

Sep 24, 6:29 PMDec 31, 7:29 PM

45.87%chance

3201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

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