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Top stories

China Stages Naval and Air Patrols Around Disputed Scarborough Shoal

China Stages Naval and Air Patrols Around Disputed Scarborough Shoal

Authors

4

3 months ago

Prediction markets for China Coast Guard

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?

Mar 23, 6:29 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

12.53%chance

465262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2535

512

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026

Nov 23, 7:58 AMDec 15, 7:54 AM

7.45%chance

11441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

353

28

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

925

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.08%chance

12289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

61

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?

Oct 24, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

10.3%chance

7217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

58

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?

Aug 27, 3:25 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

32.61%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

70

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026?

Aug 27, 3:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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