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Prediction markets for Chinese APT
Prediction markets for Chinese APT
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
50.47%
chance
3
107
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1059
1041
Will the APT tungsten price exceed $460/mtu on May 1, 2026?
Mar 2, 9:08 PM
May 1, 9:06 PM
80%
chance
1
100
Option
Votes
NO
YES
200
50
Will APT price effect due to Sangdong mine's production commencement exceed 450 USD/mtu on May 31, 2026?
Mar 4, 9:04 AM
May 31, 9:04 AM
80%
chance
1
100
Option
Votes
NO
YES
200
50
Will APT price effect due to Sangdong mine's production commencement exceed 500 USD/mtu on May 31, 2026?
Mar 4, 9:04 AM
May 31, 9:04 AM
67.84%
chance
2
55
Option
Votes
NO
YES
145
69
Will Sangdong mine output exceed 20% of non-Chinese tungsten supply on April 1, 2027?
Mar 2, 6:11 PM
Apr 1, 6:10 PM
30.77%
chance
1
50
Option
Votes
YES
NO
150
67
Will APT price effect due to Sangdong mine's production commencement exceed 600 USD/mtu on May 31, 2026?
Mar 4, 9:04 AM
May 31, 9:04 AM
39.02%
chance
2
25
Option
Votes
YES
NO
125
80
Will APT price effect due to Sangdong mine's production commencement exceed 550 USD/mtu on May 31, 2026?
Mar 4, 9:04 AM
May 31, 9:04 AM
54.75%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
NO
YES
110
91
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