Chinese Nationals News

Which university will I be admitted into?

Sep 18, 3:22 AMAug 31, 3:59 PM

3220842

OptionProbability

Purdue (Engineering)

Imperial College London

UIUC (Engineering)

Oxford or Cambridge

University of Washington Seattle (Engineering)

Cambridge

Georgia Tech

UC San Diego

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

Any Ivy League school

Oxford

UC Berkeley

Yale

Princeton

MIT

Harvard

I decide not to go to university for 2026-2027

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Feb 15, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

335958

OptionProbability

Other

Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)

Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)

Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)

Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)

Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)

[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)

Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)

Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)

Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)

Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)

Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)

Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)

Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)

Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)

Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)

Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)

Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028

Jan 14, 9:47 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

224510

OptionProbability

GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

Cabinet level current us official visits greenland

Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028

Trump visits greenland

GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

20+ story building built

Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)

Us has another military base at least 500 personnel

Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now

Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)

Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov

Greenland population falls below 40000

Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200

Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)

Greenland has a military

Greenland significantly changes its flag

Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers

Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it

Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay

USD is the used currency

40+ story building built

Will the H-1B country caps be raised or eliminated in 2025?

Mar 5, 4:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.61%chance

122647

OptionVotes

YES

3484

287

Chinese nationals are no longer able to work for OpenAI or Anthropic in the US before 2030

Apr 22, 2:17 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.06%chance

341162

OptionVotes

YES

1026

974

Will the first manned mission to mars have a Chinese national on board?

Dec 12, 2:32 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

23.69%chance

7203

OptionVotes

YES

252

Will a non-Chinese national land on the Moon as part of a Chinese mission before 2035?

Apr 15, 4:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.04%chance

6151

OptionVotes

YES

206

184

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Will the first woman to walk on the Moon be a Chinese national?

Jun 20, 2:55 AMDec 31, 2:54 AM

50.14%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.19%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

126

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?

Oct 24, 5:30 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

51.24%chance

426

OptionVotes

YES

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026?

Aug 27, 3:23 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Chinese Nationals News

Prediction markets for Chinese Nationals

Prediction markets for Chinese Nationals

Prediction markets for Chinese Nationals

Which university will I be admitted into?

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028

Will the H-1B country caps be raised or eliminated in 2025?

Chinese nationals are no longer able to work for OpenAI or Anthropic in the US before 2030

Will the first manned mission to mars have a Chinese national on board?

Will a non-Chinese national land on the Moon as part of a Chinese mission before 2035?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will the first woman to walk on the Moon be a Chinese national?

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026?

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