Chinese Nationals News

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Feb 15, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

356265

OptionProbability

Other

Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)

Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)

Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)

Zhang Shengmin, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission

[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)

Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)

Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)

Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)

Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)

Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)

Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)

Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)

Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)

Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)

Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)

Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)

Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)

Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028

Jan 14, 9:47 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

244690

OptionProbability

GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

Cabinet level current us official visits greenland

Trump visits greenland

GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)

Us has another military base at least 500 personnel

Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now

Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028

Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)

Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov

Greenland population falls below 40000

Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200

Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)

Greenland has a military

20+ story building built

Greenland significantly changes its flag

Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers

Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay

Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it

USD is the used currency

40+ story building built

Chinese nationals are no longer able to work for OpenAI or Anthropic in the US before 2030

Apr 22, 2:17 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.06%chance

341162

OptionVotes

YES

1026

974

China to announce cap on lead output by EOY 2026?

Dec 27, 12:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.11%chance

81119

OptionVotes

YES

1104

907

Will China collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)

Apr 26, 2:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

11875

OptionVotes

YES

120

Will a non-Chinese national land on the Moon as part of a Chinese mission before 2035?

Apr 15, 4:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

27.96%chance

9267

OptionVotes

YES

247

166

Will the first manned mission to mars have a Chinese national on board?

Dec 12, 2:32 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

23.69%chance

7203

OptionVotes

YES

252

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.2%chance

6134

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will the first woman to walk on the Moon be a Chinese national?

Jun 20, 2:55 AMDec 31, 2:54 AM

40.92%chance

996

OptionVotes

YES

123

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Aug 27, 3:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.45%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

112

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?

Oct 24, 5:30 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

51.24%chance

426

OptionVotes

YES

Chinese Nationals News

Prediction markets for Chinese Nationals

Prediction markets for Chinese Nationals

Prediction markets for Chinese Nationals

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028

Chinese nationals are no longer able to work for OpenAI or Anthropic in the US before 2030

China to announce cap on lead output by EOY 2026?

Will China collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%)

Will a non-Chinese national land on the Moon as part of a Chinese mission before 2035?

Will the first manned mission to mars have a Chinese national on board?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Will the first woman to walk on the Moon be a Chinese national?

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?

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