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Prediction markets for Choose

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.6%chance

10040866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10704

9346

Bitcoin Hit $1m USD By... (Choose your timescale)

Feb 29, 3:48 AMMar 7, 12:59 PM

147262

OptionProbability

End of Dec 2046

End of Dec 2038

End of Dec 2032

End of Dec 2028

End of Dec 2025

End of Dec 2026

End of March 2024

End of Jun 2024

End of Sep 2024

End of Dec 2024

50

41

33

12

1

1

0

0

0

0

If Donald Trump dies in office, who will President Vance choose as his Vice President?

Jan 20, 11:48 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

131477

OptionProbability

Other

Marco Rubio

Doug Burgum

Ivanka Trump

Elon Musk

73

8

8

7

4

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.39%chance

16948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

789

If Mr Beast runs for president in 2036, who will he choose as his Vice President running mate? [ADD RESPONSES]

Jul 11, 12:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12671

OptionProbability

Other

Moist Critikal

Chandler Hallow

Karl Jacobs

Gavin Newsom

Kamala Harris

Jimmy Carter

Mira

Chuck Norris

Hasan piker

67

19

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will Scotland choose to leave the UK before 2040?

Jan 23, 1:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41.26%chance

14262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

163

Which change will happen first in the methods states use choose electors for the Electoral College?

Apr 19, 5:49 AMApr 26, 6:59 AM

7115

OptionProbability

One or more states switch from winner-take-all to proportional

Nebraska and/or Maine switches from proportional to winner-take-all

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact takes effect

No changes by 2050

Other

Electoral College is abolished

35

21

21

8

8

7

What will the next King of the United Kingdom choose as his regnal name?

Dec 3, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4113

OptionProbability

William V

Charles IV

George VII

Other

Edward IX

78

6

6

6

5

Will Xi Jinping choose a successor in 2027?

Nov 2, 3:02 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

21.34%chance

7112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

55

Will Xi Jinping choose a successor in 2032?

Nov 2, 3:05 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM

63%chance

644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

77

Will p(doom) be meaningfully (>3%) affected by alignment researchers choosing to walk rather than run from ptA to ptB?

Sep 21, 9:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.26%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

75

Choose your gay superpower

Aug 18, 5:37 PMAug 18, 5:37 PM

317

OptionProbability

Making any song a bop

Turning looks

Summoning a brunch

Finding the drama instantly

66

59

54

50

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