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Prediction markets for CI

Polymarket legally accessible to US citizens before December 31, 2025

Nov 22, 4:05 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

95.43%chance

237238329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

47466

2577

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.33%chance

11621255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5123

1149

Will Donald Trump send out a stimulus check to the majority of american citizens during his second term?

Nov 22, 5:36 AMJan 30, 4:59 AM

32.81%chance

15416523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1699

1324

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.9%chance

2116066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17426

6658

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

China's 70-city new home price index YoY change for December 2025 >= -2.0%?

Nov 26, 6:05 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

40.83%chance

32393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12039

8306

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

56.37%chance

41397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11367

8797

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

What rank in views will The Amazing Digital Circus Finale get?

Dec 1, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

1st-3rd

4th-6th

7th-9th

33

33

33

Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council election for district 11

Apr 8, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Traci Park (incumbent)

Other

Faizah Malik

39

39

22

GovCon: NIH CIO-SP4 will...

Jul 26, 9:48 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

00

OptionProbability

Be canceled.

Remain under protest forever...

Protests resolved and active for task orders!

33

33

33

2026 Los Angeles City Controller Election

Nov 9, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)

Isadore Hall

Other

33

33

33

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