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Prediction markets for CI

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.74%chance

3437147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135189

102092

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3528863

OptionProbability

<0.5%

0.5-1%

1-1.5%

1.5-2%

2-3%

3-4%

4-5%

5-10%

≥10%

41

38

10

3

3

2

1

1

1

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.67%chance

12623388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3088

1645

How many citations will "Transformers as Approximations of Solomonoff Induction" have at the end of 2030?

May 21, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

922712

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 30

Above 40

100

100

65

42

40

33

26

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

58053

OptionProbability

Kansas

Missouri

Other

68

32

0

Will Manchester City be severely punished by the Premier League?

Feb 4, 3:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.57%chance

566814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5120

1904

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

756080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2300

2259

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

34.52%chance

85947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13772

7261

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.53%chance

163275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7541

4361

Will any city >50k have energy "too cheap to meter" by 2035?

Aug 2, 2:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.12%chance

131987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

841

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Jul 3, 7:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

111151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

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