Circuit Court News

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

Sep 4, 3:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1814156

OptionProbability

Before trial begins: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Before a verdict of guilt for any of these charges: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed

Trial begins before 2031

Trump serves “house arrest” for any of the 4 alleged violations

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States”

Convicted of “Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Obstruction of and Attempt to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”

Convicted of “Conspiracy Against Rights”

Convicted of all 4 alleged violations

Trump goes to prison for any of the 4 alleged violations

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Nov 14, 2:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.03%chance

274159

OptionVotes

YES

2276

819

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.2%chance

271752

OptionVotes

YES

1411

781

Will the Supreme Court uphold the 5th Circuit ruling restricting mifepristone?

May 6, 4:09 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

28.47%chance

10633

OptionVotes

YES

1585

631

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Dec 27, 11:36 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

34.68%chance

16523

OptionProbability

YES

1013

904

Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Sep 8, 6:27 PMDec 31, 7:22 PM

67%chance

3442

OptionVotes

YES

1425

702

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

Apr 16, 5:41 PMSep 1, 10:00 PM

40.91%chance

11245

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system?

Sep 14, 4:17 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

44.51%chance

13202

OptionVotes

YES

214

202

Will Gannon Ken Van Dyke be convicted?

Apr 24, 2:11 PMOct 24, 1:59 PM

86%chance

5139

OptionVotes

YES

141

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

Dec 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 4:30 AM

41.43%chance

449

OptionVotes

YES

119

Circuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?

Apr 24, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.37%chance

216

OptionVotes

YES

116

Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028

Apr 24, 7:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

OptionVotes

YES

101

Circuit Court News

Prediction markets for Circuit Court

Prediction markets for Circuit Court

Prediction markets for Circuit Court

The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Will the Supreme Court uphold the 5th Circuit ruling restricting mifepristone?

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system?

Will Gannon Ken Van Dyke be convicted?

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

Circuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?

Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028

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