CIS News

What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter

Sep 10, 10:03 PMDec 10, 10:57 PM

597143324

OptionProbability

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

US citizen

Male

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

White

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

Is named Tyler Robinson

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Resided in the same state as the incident

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

20-27 years old

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Skinny

ectomorph body type

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Hunter

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Gamer

iphone user

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Will plead guilty

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Furry

Unemployed

Is left wing

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Is sentenced to death

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Not a virgin

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Strongly opposes zionism

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Has ADHD

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Will kill again (including suicide)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Fan fiction author

White cis-hetero Christian man

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

Transgender

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Participates in this market

Has a Bluesky account

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

psychedelics user

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

has significant student load debt

Had diagnosed mental illness

Is right wing

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Femboy

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

History of illegal drug addiction

White Nationalist

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

History of domestic violence

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Left-handed

Was a student at UVU

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

groyper

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Incel

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Escapes carceral detention

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

Indian national

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Is or was a computer science student

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Has a Manifold account

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria

100

Relationship Style Stonks

Mar 25, 9:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5813173

OptionProbability

Other

BDSM

Power couple

"Fun while it lasted"

Me + *Her*

Keynesian beauty contest

Spinning rapidly in opposite directions

Polyamory

Monogamy

Relationship Futarchy

Human + Robot

Enemies to Lovers

Co-conspirators

Philosophically incompatible

Conjoined twinks

Horizontal gene transfer

borgie

Relationship Anarchy

Platonic

Wild Lovers

Friends with Benefits

Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence

Forever alone

Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy

Hive / Swarm / Superorganism

Love triangle

Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks

Universal love

merged consciousness

Rationalussy

Vespertine

liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets

Matriarchy

Labor Union

Socratic

Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried

One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)

Just being one helluva slut

Beard

Paradixical

Friends with Detriments

NP-complete

"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"

Hell's Kitchen

Stockholm Syndrome

London Syndrome

Financial Domination

The Price is Right

Crows

Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)

Budget horse

assortative

Hubris quest

Fiends with benefits

Envenomation

Polygamy

Polyandry

Ethical Non-Monogamy

Unethical Non-Monogamy

Celibacy

Aromanticism

Solo poly

Open relationship

Polyfidelity

What's a "relationship"?

Reflexive

Symmetric

Transitive

Metamour

Socially enforced monogamy

Unreciprocated love

Asexual romance

Abusive

"This is my emotional support Ex"

FWB

Enemies-To-Lovers

Codependent

Transference

Monogamish

Voyeuristic

Hobbesian

Romantic Mutual Suicide

Mutuals

Animalistic

Human + AI

parasocial

Polycule

Cuckold

Throuple

Boyce-Codd normal form

Aristotelian

I like big butts and I cannot lie

I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon

The Apprentice

Will a trans woman give birth before 2033?

Sep 27, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.12%chance

804307

OptionVotes

YES

1063

799

Who will be a world chess champion before 2050?

Jan 25, 7:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

383963

OptionProbability

Dommaraju Gukesh

Javokhir Sindarov

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

R Praggnanandhaa

Vincent Keymer

Arjun Erigaisi

Abhimanyu Mishra

Alireza Firouzja

Fabiano Caruana

Leon Mendonca

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Anish Giri

Wei Yi

Hikaru Nakamura

Parham Maghsoodloo

Murzin, Volodar

Hans Niemann

Raunak Sadhwani

Wesley So

Sergey Karjakin

any cis female

any trans female

100

What causes Manifold Love to fail? (Resolves to multiple answers)

Apr 2, 2:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

182889

OptionProbability

The site is never marketed well enough outside of the rationalist-adjacent community, and there are not enough rationalist-adjacent people to sustain the site.

It is never able to get a critical mass of cis women.

The basic premise of the site is too complicated for people, who prefer to use simpler dating apps.

The concept of gambling on romance is unappealing to most people.

Too few people are interested in trading on random people's matches

It just never ends up taking off, without any particular flaw being the obvious cause

It is never able to get a critical mass of active profiles.

People don't think strangers are more qualified to choose matches for them than themselves

Not enough rationalussy

Other

extreme "everything is public" approach alienates userbase

Manifold as a whole shuts down without it ever having taken off

Unpopular combo of excessive transparency imposed on users / lack of transparency from staff

James pivots to something else

Everyone on earth finds love

people leave the site after finding a match

lack of moderation / lots of harassment make the platform unpleasant to be on

Stripe threatens to stop processing payments

(threat of) legal action

another dating app captures our target audience

It is never able to get a critical mass of good SREs.

It allows minors to join and gets bad PR or legal issues as a result

Messaging failure: The unique value proposition is clear, predictive market match making, however the deliverable does not appear to be clear. Manifold.love could be calibrated to deliver hook-ups or long-term relationships, not both.

Markets are not predictive due to difficulty measuring or defining outcomes, or due to low probability of outcomes

The administration team proves incapable of writing or enforcing rules that effectively keep members safe, and this causes some form of scandal.

All the good dates join @Mira 's cult and the remainder are left to suffer alone - wailing and gnashing their teeth as incels.

It gets a critical mass of fake profiles offering services users are not interested in.

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

YES

1476

649

The first state leader born in the 21st century will...

Mar 29, 1:58 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

16915

OptionProbability

Have been born after the first plane was hijacked on 9/11

Be a President or other kind of non-royal, non-coup Head of State

Be a man (cis or trans)

Take office on or before 2034-03-29 (ten years from market creation)

Be a Prime Minister, meaning a head of government, not head of state, most often elected by the legislature

Be considered broadly left-wing in their country

Be a monarch or a monarch's representative/regent

Have been married

Have been in custody

Rule a country that's in the bottom 10% by area

Rule an African country

Rule a country with same-sex marriage

Rule a country that's not a UN member as of market creation

Not rule by heredity, and be related to someone who is or was also a state leader during their lifetime

Come to power as the result of a coup

Be out as LGBTQIA+

Have used a prediction market

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Apr 11, 10:35 AMMay 31, 3:59 PM

13.71%chance

12322

OptionVotes

YES

1237

921

Will it be normal for boys 13 to 18 (cisgender) to wear skirts, crop tops, or dresses by 2030

Aug 16, 1:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.52%chance

7183

OptionVotes

YES

243

Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show >1.25x OR <0.8x ratio between Gen Alpha M VS F non-cis rates in 2035?

Nov 18, 4:35 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

54.53%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

1095

913

Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show a[n implied] drop in Gen Alpha afab non-cis rates, from 2025, in 2035?

Nov 18, 5:06 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

54.53%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

1095

913

Will the next military draft in the USA include women?

Sep 29, 1:51 AMOct 6, 3:59 AM

54.14%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

109

CIS News

Prediction markets for CIS

Prediction markets for CIS

Prediction markets for CIS

What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter

Relationship Style Stonks

Will a trans woman give birth before 2033?

Who will be a world chess champion before 2050?

What causes Manifold Love to fail? (Resolves to multiple answers)

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

The first state leader born in the 21st century will...

Will there be an all-female crew as part of the next six missions to land on the moon?

Will it be normal for boys 13 to 18 (cisgender) to wear skirts, crop tops, or dresses by 2030

Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show >1.25x OR <0.8x ratio between Gen Alpha M VS F non-cis rates in 2035?

Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show a[n implied] drop in Gen Alpha afab non-cis rates, from 2025, in 2035?

Will the next military draft in the USA include women?

Latest stories