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Prediction markets for CIT

What % of Americans will cite computers/technology as the US's top problem by Dec 31, 2026? (Gallup)

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4653117

OptionProbability

1-1.5%

1.5-2%

0.5-1%

2-3%

<0.5%

3-4%

4-5%

5-10%

≥10%

61

15

12

4

2

2

2

2

1

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.88%chance

12723740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3769

1429

How many citations will "Transformers as Approximations of Solomonoff Induction" have at the end of 2030?

May 21, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1023485

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 30

Above 40

100

100

76

48

40

33

26

Will Donald Trump send out a stimulus check to the majority of american citizens during his second term?

Nov 22, 5:36 AMJan 30, 4:59 AM

34.02%chance

15716909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

1273

Will Manchester City be severely punished by the Premier League?

Feb 4, 3:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.37%chance

6912914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4996

1495

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

12211392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2025

1915

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

22.11%chance

910947

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18772

5327

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

58053

OptionProbability

Kansas

Missouri

Other

68

32

0

Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

Aug 1, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.53%chance

264180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2097

477

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

Will any city >50k have energy "too cheap to meter" by 2035?

Aug 2, 2:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.12%chance

131987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

841

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

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