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Prediction markets for Citi Research

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030?

Aug 8, 1:39 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.54%chance

332387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

944

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.63%chance

412228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

881

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

241978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

871

Will Facebook users with de-personalized ads have better consumer outcomes?

Feb 24, 8:07 PMMar 4, 7:59 AM

45.93%chance

5175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Any province legalizes psilocybin for recreational use?

Feb 1, 11:40 AMDec 17, 11:59 PM

9.62%chance

4145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

996

By the end of Mamdani's term of office New York City violent crime rate will be higher than when he took office.

Dec 20, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

8144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

76

When will the $10k SF Buried Treasure hunt end? (Weekly number)

May 6, 7:51 PMOct 1, 6:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

Jun 17-30, 2026

May 20-Jun 2, 2026

Jun 3-16, 2026

Jul 1-14, 2026

Jul 15-28, 2026

May 6-19, 2026

Jul 29-Aug 6, 2026

27

13

13

13

13

11

11

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