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Prediction markets for Citi Research

Fed Spectation → Fed Interest Rate decision in December?

Nov 13, 4:18 PMDec 12, 4:59 AM

228219

OptionProbability

Fed Will CUT Rates By 25BPs

Fed Will HOLD Rates

Fed Will CUT Rates By 50BPs

Fed Will HIKE Rates

93

6

1

0

9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

12.54%chance

353563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2641

379

By the start of 2026, will at least 1000 people have been permanently cured of HIV?

Nov 24, 7:55 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

6.15%chance

333099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3711

460

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030?

Aug 8, 1:39 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.46%chance

322386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

943

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.63%chance

412228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

881

By the start of 2026, will at least 100 people have been permanently cured of HIV?

Nov 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

16.39%chance

241615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1981

558

Will Facebook users with de-personalized ads have better consumer outcomes?

Feb 24, 8:07 PMMar 4, 7:59 AM

45.93%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

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