City Charter News

1 year ago

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Apr 21, 1:25 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

1123951

OptionProbability

Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative

Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment

Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure

Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative

Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative

Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment

Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?

Jan 13, 8:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

262359

OptionProbability

Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

Preventing S-Risks

Wild-animal welfare

Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC

Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)

Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts

Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation

Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness

Climate geoengineeering

Preventing stable totalitarianism

Space governance / space colonization

Georgism (aka land value taxes)

Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc

Cryonics & brain-emulation research

Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research

Charter cities / affinity cities / network states

Civilizational-preservation bunkers

Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc

Will 5,000+ people live in Akon City before 2030?

Sep 18, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.2%chance

181907

OptionVotes

YES

1754

816

Prospera breaks ground on an African charter city project before EOY 2028?

Aug 13, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.81%chance

71279

OptionVotes

YES

2225

450

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Oct 11, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.93%chance

9910

OptionVotes

YES

1494

669

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.15%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

228

200

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

409

180

2026 City of Los Angeles Charter Reform Predictions

Jul 28, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2259

OptionProbability

No change to the charter

Ranked choice voting for city council or city wide office

Expand the number of council districts

Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally?

May 12, 2:03 AMJan 2, 2:55 AM

5223

OptionProbability

China

Singapore

South Korea

Israel

USA

Other country, not in a semi-autonomous zone

Taiwan

Canada

Japan

Semi-autonomous charter city or network state (like Prospera)

United Kingdom

At the end of 2028, will the consensus of major news sources be that Minicircle is/was a fraud?

Feb 6, 3:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.11%chance

6141

OptionVotes

YES

185

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.01%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

242

153

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Prediction markets for City Charter

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?

Will 5,000+ people live in Akon City before 2030?

Prospera breaks ground on an African charter city project before EOY 2028?

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

2026 City of Los Angeles Charter Reform Predictions

Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally?

At the end of 2028, will the consensus of major news sources be that Minicircle is/was a fraud?

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

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