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Ukraine warcasting megamarket

Jun 8, 2:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

303179518

OptionProbability

Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2024

100

Will Syria hold legitimate elections before the end of 2025?

Dec 8, 12:16 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

26.2%chance

7830096

OptionVotes

YES

1678

596

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.36%chance

826609

OptionVotes

YES

1175

641

Will Syria hold legitimate elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

22.69%chance

484836

OptionVotes

YES

1846

542

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.64%chance

482387

OptionVotes

YES

5267

1567

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

YES

1736

350

Head of state says "dildo" in public before 2030

Oct 22, 1:51 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

46.08%chance

201405

OptionVotes

YES

1042

931

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2027?

Oct 30, 9:18 PMJan 6, 10:59 PM

27.63%chance

17871

OptionVotes

YES

1027

830

Which of the following Congolese cities will be controlled by the M23 group on January 1st, 2026?

Mar 12, 10:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4773

OptionProbability

Goma

Bukavu

Butembo

Kisangani

Kinshasa

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Jul 10, 6:57 PMJan 2, 5:00 AM

36.8%chance

4710

OptionVotes

YES

1311

763

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

57.1%chance

9610

OptionVotes

YES

1154

867

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Ukraine warcasting megamarket

Will Syria hold legitimate elections before the end of 2025?

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?

Will Syria hold legitimate elections before the end of 2026?

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Head of state says "dildo" in public before 2030

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2027?

Which of the following Congolese cities will be controlled by the M23 group on January 1st, 2026?

[Metaculus] If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, wil...l Tehran within one year?

Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)

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