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Prediction markets for City Office

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

75.32%chance

659345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1748

573

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Jun 19, 3:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

94.43%chance

354967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3900

193

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.64%chance

482387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5267

1567

Waymo handles Denver snow?

Sep 6, 1:39 PMApr 1, 1:28 PM

34.25%chance

371955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

722

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.19%chance

161260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1636

611

Will Ron Desantis ever be president of the United States?

Aug 18, 10:57 PMAug 19, 3:59 AM

6.67%chance

131071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1507

927

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Oct 11, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.4%chance

9860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

692

During the year 2027, will China implement a pandemic lockdown in a Tier 1 city comparable to 2022's lockdown?

Jul 7, 3:22 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

8.26%chance

11334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

925

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

59.33%chance

5287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

481

101

By the end of Mamdani's term of office New York City violent crime rate will be higher than when he took office.

Dec 20, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64%chance

6117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

2026 City of Los Angeles Charter Reform Predictions

Jul 28, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

No change to the charter

Ranked choice voting for city council or city wide office

Expand the number of council districts

50

50

37

2026 Los Angeles City Controller Election

Nov 9, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)

Isadore Hall

Other

33

33

33

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