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Prediction markets for City Office

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

68.07%chance

7411984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

685

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Jun 19, 3:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

94.43%chance

354967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3900

193

Will Andrew Yang be elected to any major US political office before 2030?

Dec 16, 6:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.94%chance

172860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

922

872

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

57.32%chance

492691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4970

1769

Waymo handles Denver snow?

Sep 6, 1:39 PMApr 1, 1:28 PM

42.12%chance

382113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Will Ron Desantis ever be president of the United States?

Aug 18, 10:57 PMAug 19, 3:59 AM

6.67%chance

131071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1507

927

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Oct 11, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.93%chance

9910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1494

669

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

28869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

During the year 2027, will China implement a pandemic lockdown in a Tier 1 city comparable to 2022's lockdown?

Jul 7, 3:22 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

8.26%chance

11334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

925

2026 City of Los Angeles Charter Reform Predictions

Jul 28, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2259

OptionProbability

No change to the charter

Ranked choice voting for city council or city wide office

Expand the number of council districts

50

6

4

By the end of Mamdani's term of office New York City violent crime rate will be higher than when he took office.

Dec 20, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.51%chance

13246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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