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Prediction markets for CIVI

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?

Aug 26, 3:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7%chance

19079789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2210

1179

Will CrowdStrike pay more than $10m of civil or criminal liability for today's incident before 2027?

Jul 19, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.44%chance

4129880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

231

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8%chance

5415928

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3437

299

Will WW3 directly cause over 1B civilian casualties?

Jan 3, 8:44 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

26.01%chance

86380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9588

101

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.7%chance

705955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2407

2217

Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?

May 18, 10:12 PMApr 21, 5:59 AM

51.33%chance

423977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

862

Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?

May 6, 12:14 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

37.67%chance

423128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

490

Will we ever discover alien civilizations in our lifetime?

Mar 5, 10:01 AMJun 19, 3:59 AM

13.47%chance

223038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

807

Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?

Mar 30, 5:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

52.81%chance

342621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1341

762

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Jul 3, 7:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

111151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.5%chance

8201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5180

4868

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