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Prediction markets for CIVI

Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?

Aug 26, 3:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.13%chance

19283048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2955

1132

Will CrowdStrike pay more than $10m of civil or criminal liability for today's incident before 2027?

Jul 19, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.75%chance

4229930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

204

Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?

Oct 21, 9:08 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

5716040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3285

313

Will WW3 directly cause over 1B civilian casualties?

Jan 3, 8:44 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

24%chance

116486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9618

91

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

756080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2300

2259

Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?

May 18, 10:12 PMApr 21, 5:59 AM

54%chance

424032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

917

[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.53%chance

163275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7541

4361

Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?

May 6, 12:14 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

37.2%chance

433175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1467

483

Will we ever discover alien civilizations in our lifetime?

Mar 5, 10:01 AMJun 19, 3:59 AM

13.47%chance

223038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

807

Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?

Mar 30, 5:33 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

52.81%chance

342621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1341

762

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.74%chance

291727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

918

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Jul 3, 7:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

111151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

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