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Prediction markets for Civil House

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Jun 24, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

84.51%chance

15836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

942

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Jul 4, 6:28 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

54.95%chance

14554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?

May 1, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.12%chance

7537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1254

798

If many think Trump was unjustly incarcerated and kept from the presidency, will there be extreme civil unrest?

Aug 30, 1:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.8%chance

11452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

942

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

183

If we sue our HVAC contractor for charging us travel fees when we have a warranty on labor, will we win?

May 15, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.83%chance

4102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

64

Will the United States cease to be "free" before 2030?

Dec 8, 6:41 PMApr 1, 6:59 AM

16.97%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

116

How will Australia's freedom index change in 2026?

May 26, 8:38 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

385

OptionProbability

It rises above 95

It stays at 95

It drops below 95

It drops below 90

34

34

24

13

US freedom index at 80 or less in 2026?

May 22, 12:11 AMMar 31, 11:00 PM

73.59%chance

373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

60

What will Gabon's 2028 'Freedom in the World' score be?

Sep 9, 3:05 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

39%chance

324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

79

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