Civil Security News

Wildfire in France’s Aude Burns 17,000 Hectares Across 15 Communes, Kills One, Injures Nine, Forces A9 Closure

2 days ago

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.42%chance

469617

OptionVotes

YES

6356

157

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

How many members of Taiwan's (R.O.C.) Legislative Yuan will be recalled in 2025?

Feb 11, 10:00 AMAug 24, 3:59 PM

143004

OptionProbability

0 legislators

1-5 legislators

6-10 legislators

11-20 legislators

21-40 legislators

41 or more legislators

All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?

Feb 19, 9:57 AMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

3.19%chance

142896

OptionVotes

YES

551

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

1696

589

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

1194

838

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

1062

940

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

191028

OptionVotes

YES

1071

830

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Jun 24, 8:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

84.51%chance

15836

OptionVotes

YES

1123

942

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.08%chance

7199

OptionVotes

YES

166

106

Will Germany reintroduce mandatory military/civil service before 2031?

Jan 11, 2:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8132

OptionProbability

Yes, but voluntary with mandatory registration

Yes for all men

Yes for everyone

Will there be a civil war in Turkey before 2035?

Apr 10, 6:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.09%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

160

Latest stories

Aug 6, 2025
Aug 6, 2025
France
Climate
Natural Disasters
Wildfire in France’s Aude Burns 17,000 Hectares Across 15 Communes, Kills One, Injures Nine, Forces A9 Closure
Authors
13
2 days ago

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Prediction markets for Civil Security

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Prediction markets for Civil Security

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

How many members of Taiwan's (R.O.C.) Legislative Yuan will be recalled in 2025?

All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Will Germany reintroduce mandatory military/civil service before 2031?

Will there be a civil war in Turkey before 2035?

Latest stories

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