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Prediction markets for CL

Anthropic share of OpenRouter tokens (%)

Sep 4, 3:33 PM

342023978

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1%chance

554928283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10435

114

By when will most 50k+ FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15114321

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2025

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2026

83

58

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.95%chance

8372334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5614

4579

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

4615921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15753

6501

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

Nov 25, 11:02 PMDec 30, 4:59 PM

17.38%chance

3715329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20734

2190

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

15211730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7799

3854

Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?

May 1, 11:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.05%chance

2811246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13866

4297

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

0.91%chance

428664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3011

1143

Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?

Mar 8, 3:07 AMJul 22, 11:59 PM

58.13%chance

187433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11782

8487

What month do you think that Barracuda 2.0 in Okeechobee Florida closes down as in out of business or sold?

Oct 6, 4:38 PMOct 6, 4:36 PM

00

OptionProbability

October

November

December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

What will be the Commended cutoff for the Class of 2028? (National Merit)

Nov 6, 10:19 PMSep 30, 5:00 PM

00

OptionProbability

<208

208

209

210

>210

20

20

20

20

20

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