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Prediction markets for CL

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.67%chance

553921727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7954

146

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

3.49%chance

8665771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52623

1900

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

4955270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6722

3132

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

732223

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

84

60

15

1

[ACX 2026] Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.91%chance

4625010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6933

3605

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

Nov 25, 11:02 PMDec 30, 4:59 PM

35.39%chance

329654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15059

4141

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6060

4388

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

0.91%chance

428664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3011

1143

Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?

Mar 8, 3:07 AMJul 22, 11:59 PM

58.13%chance

187433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11782

8487

Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms?

Jul 4, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.76%chance

273774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2680

374

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Apr 14, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.09%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6216

6157

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