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Prediction markets for CL

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.68%chance

533838789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7951

147

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Jul 25, 6:37 PMJun 30, 6:35 PM

302443638

OptionProbability

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-15

Before 2026-02-04

Before 2026-02-08

Before 2026-02-05

Before 2026-02-06

84

82

78

47

14

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

7639546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31241

3201

By when will most FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

732223

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2025

84

60

15

1

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

Nov 25, 11:02 PMDec 30, 4:59 PM

39.22%chance

318867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14255

4619

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

1.08%chance

418556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2563

1147

Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?

Mar 8, 3:07 AMJul 22, 11:59 PM

58.07%chance

187423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11768

8497

[ACX 2026] Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

227279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6954

3884

Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms?

Jul 4, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.35%chance

223014

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2517

398

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

How many goals will Viktor Gyökeres score in official club competitions in the 2025/2026 season?

Jul 26, 5:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41+

20

20

20

20

20

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