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Prediction markets for CL

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

9.06%chance

18031036435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36242

6103

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.68%chance

286687866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23814

4663

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2025?

Oct 20, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.99%chance

34796820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21324

8927

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.3%chance

15386753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6266

1436

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.62%chance

29233869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3852

3400

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

1%chance

387936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2753

1145

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

Nov 25, 11:02 PMDec 30, 4:59 PM

44.91%chance

277793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13166

5389

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.8%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4131

3056

Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms?

Jul 4, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.34%chance

81024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1702

587

How many victims will the 11foot8+8 bridge claim in 2025?

Jan 4, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

04

05

06

07

08

Other

17

17

17

17

17

17

How many goals will Viktor Gyökeres score in official club competitions in the 2025/2026 season?

Jul 26, 5:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41+

20

20

20

20

20

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