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Prediction markets for CL

Anthropic share of OpenRouter tokens (%)

Sep 4, 3:33 PM

181006413

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.3%chance

553926462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9092

129

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

Feb 21, 11:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.12%chance

87132566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15071

759

By when will most 50k+ FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?

Jan 4, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15114321

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2025

Before Jan 2026

Before July 2026

83

58

0

0

0

[ACX 2026] Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77%chance

5832367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9535

2511

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

Nov 25, 11:02 PMDec 30, 4:59 PM

19.97%chance

3714179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19584

2454

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

1479885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6410

4263

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

0.91%chance

428664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3011

1143

Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?

Mar 8, 3:07 AMJul 22, 11:59 PM

58.13%chance

187433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11782

8487

Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?

May 1, 11:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.28%chance

265322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7934

5255

Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms?

Jul 4, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.67%chance

354645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2948

340

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