Clarify News

Madrona Unveils 2025 IA40, Spotlighting 40 Rising AI Startups

1 year ago

can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Jun 7, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.89%chance

89820326

OptionVotes

YES

1103

907

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32.38%chance

787397360

OptionVotes

YES

5373

3877

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

May 23, 1:11 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

54.14%chance

226114989

OptionVotes

YES

1087

920

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9435409

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Other

Copenhagen

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Superdeterminism

Indivisible stochastic processes

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

Something else

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.15%chance

739152

OptionVotes

YES

8143

3540

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

2389

1500

Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?

Aug 17, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

266157

OptionVotes

YES

13741

8727

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?

Dec 23, 7:50 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

32.37%chance

332422

OptionVotes

YES

985

957

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Jan 13, 5:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

52033

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX's Starship–SuperHeavy lift off from the launch pad two or more times between 1 January 2024 and 1 July 2024 inclusive?

Will Manifold users reach the $10,000 monthly charity donation cap in any of the first six months of 2024? (Excepting the excluded period at the start of January)?

Will Starship IFT-3 launch within a week of receiving the launch license from the FAA?

To whom does Manifold need to extend its userbase in order to be self-sustaining (link in comments)

[Don't bet on this yet, criteria TBA] How many Manifold users will have a net worth of 1 million mana or more on 1 July 2024? (Rules below)

Will the Tesla Cybertruck be available in Australia by 2034?

[At least ten answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

[At least fifty answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

100

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Dec 21, 12:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15405

OptionProbability

Venezuela

Netherlands

Estonia

France

No country before 2030

Norway

Switzerland

Germany

Sweden

USA

Poland

Will Donald Trump be the first US President to live in exile? [clarified, by 2030 Halloween]

Oct 17, 1:37 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

16.09%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

194

Which ends first

Dec 22, 6:21 PMJan 23, 5:59 AM

OptionProbability

LeBron’s NBA (playing) career

Steelers’ non-losing season streak

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can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Will any non-astronaut be "commuting to the moon" before 2040?

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Will any country conduct a large-scale project to revise and clarify language used in legal documents before 2030?

Will Donald Trump be the first US President to live in exile? [clarified, by 2030 Halloween]

Which ends first

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