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OptionProbability
Jon Ossoff
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Other
Gavin Newsom
Kamala Harris
Josh Shapiro
Pete Buttigieg
Andy Beshear
Mark Kelly
Gretchen Whitmer
J.B. Pritzker
Raphael Warnock
Michelle Obama
Bernie Sanders
Wes Moore
Ro Khanna
Hunter Biden
None
John Fetterman
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Jeff Jackson
Jared Polis
Amy Klobuchar
Cory Booker
Mitch Landrieu
Roy Cooper
Dianne Feinstein
Jimmy Carter
Tim Walz
Chuck Schumer
Tim Kaine
Tammy Duckworth
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloomberg
Dwayne Johnson
[Duplicate - Invalid]
Hakeem Jeffries
Andrew Yang
Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II
Dean Phillips
Bob Ferguson
Jay Inslee
Kathy Hochul
Anthony Blinken
Susan Rice
Scott Wiener
Donald Trump
Sam Altman
Jeff Merkley
Merrick Garland
Taylor Swift
Tammy Baldwin
Katie Porter
Phil Murphy
Cenk Uygur
Mark Cuban
Jamie Raskin
Joe Manchin
Sherrod Brown
Chris Murphy
Brian Schatz
John Bel Edwards
Clark Duke
Stacey Abrams
Nina Turner
john smith
Jon Stewart
Duplicate ignore
Gina Raimondo
Ron Desantis
Beto O'Rourke
Vermin Supreme
Invalid answer
John Jacob
Alex Jones
Bob Roberston the IV
Ruben Gallego
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Stephen A Smith
26
14
14
12
5
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gunplay
On screen fatalities
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
London will appear on screen
World capital other than London appears on screen
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Blue-eyed Bond
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Bond flys an aircraft
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Skydiving
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
Bond commits arson
Bond receives a gunshot wound
Oral sex
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
The title will refer to life and/or death
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond plays poker
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Wilhelm scream
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Jetpack
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Orgy
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
Mexico is shown on screen
Cryptocurrency is referenced
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
A hamburger appears on screen
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Bond goes to space
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Pirates
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Bond plays Russian roulette
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
It will be directed by a woman
Bond dies
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
The fourth wall is broken
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond is vegan
Released in 2026
Bond hits the griddy
99
98
97
97
96
96
95
95
94
91
91
90
90
89
87
87
86
86
85
85
84
83
82
80
77
77
76
75
72
72
70
69
69
69
68
68
68
65
62
60
60
59
59
58
58
57
57
56
56
56
56
55
55
54
53
53
53
53
52
51
51
50
50
50
49
49
49
48
48
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
41
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
36
36
35
35
35
34
33
33
33
32
32
32
32
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32
32
32
31
31
31
30
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
17
17
17
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Robert Caro
Ajeya Cotra
David Reich
Noam Brown
Jensen Huang
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
roon
Jack Clark
Yann LeCun
Sarah Paine
Nicholas Carlini
Sundar Pichai
Dean Spears
Ilya Sutskever
Joscha Bach
Paul J Werbos
Dean Ball
Michael Dell
Nick Bostrom
Hans Moravec
Demis Hassabis
Satya Nadella
Holden Karnofsky
Sam Altman
Matt Levine
Jeff Bezos
Michael Levin
Amanda Askell
Daniel Kokotajlo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Ian Morris
Mira Murati
Mustafa Suleyman
Alec Radford
Joe Carlsmith
Carl Shulman
Mark Zuckerberg
Dan Hendrycks
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Zvi Mowshowitz
Andrej Karpathy
George Hotz
Barack Obama
Bill Gates
Tanner Greer
Tamay Besiroglu
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Doris Taylor
Janus @repligate
Scott Alexander
Gary Marcus
François Chollet
Donald Trump
Nate Soares
Helen Toner
Kamala Harris
Bill Clinton
Joe Henrich
Tyler Cowen
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
24
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
OptionProbability
Rihanna
Serena Williams
Virat Kohli
Rafael Nadal
Neymar Jr.
Volodymyr Zekensky
Adam Driver
Jennifer Lawrence
Zack King
Luka Doncic
Michael Cera
Sam Altman
PewDiePie
Justin Bieber
Daniel Radcliffe
Manuel Neuer
Emma Stone
Any of the 7 BTS members
Selena Gomez
Any member of Blackpink
Taylor Swift
Maria Sharapova
Post Malone
Markiplier
Marques Brownlee
Any member of Girl's Generation
Margot Robbie
Ben Johns (pickleball)
Adele
Simone Biles
Tom Holland
Palmer Luckey
Dwarkesh Patel
Halsey
Timothée Chalamet
Harry Styles
Kevin Durant
John Boyega
Drake
Alia Bhatt
Camille Lellouche
Sally Rooney
Shohei Ohtani
Patrick Collison
David Cross
Joji
Emotional Oranges (any member)
Tay Zonday
Barron Trump
The next US president excluding Trump & Vance
Andrew Huberman
Jungkook
Logan Paul
MrBeast
Destiny
Max Verstappen
Magnus Carlsen
Lorde
KSI
Emma Watson
Oreslan
Taylor Hill
Emelia Clarke
Pony Ma Huateng
Muqtada al-Sadr
G.E.M. (Gloria Tang)
Zhang Jike
Ritesh Agarwal
Ariana Grande
Jimin
Haley Joel Osment
Bruno Mars
Neeraj Chopra
Alia Al Mansoori
Naomi Osaka
Kylian Mbappe
Maisie Williams
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Zendaya
Dylan Wang
xQc
Billie Eilish
Hikaru Nakamura
Jenna Ortega
Lady Gaga
Robert Eggers
Emma Radacanu
Emma Chamberlain
Robert Pattinson
Yuna Kim
Leonardo DiCaprio
MoistCritical
Lewis Hamilton
George Hotz
Wirtual
Vitalik Buterin
AOC
Eric Hansen
Hans Niemann
Aella
Katy Perry
Miley Cyrus
Eric Rosen
Scott Auckerman
Ezra Miller
Greta Thunberg
Jessie Eisenberg
Lil Nas X
Yuval Noah Harari
All members of Blackpink
Oprah Winfrey
Jennifer Aniston
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
97
86
84
81
78
78
75
74
73
69
68
65
65
65
65
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
60
59
59
55
54
54
54
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
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49
48
48
46
46
45
44
44
43
43
43
43
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43
42
41
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41
39
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39
36
36
35
35
35
35
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34
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34
34
33
31
31
31
30
30
28
28
23
23
22
22
21
18
17
14
14
9
8
7
5
5
OptionProbability
Other
Andrew Oldham
Leondra Kruger
Kristen Clarke
Elizabeth Prelogar
Merrick Garland
Sri Srinivasan
Lucy Koh
Michelle Alexander
Brigitte Amiri
Mike Lee
Ted Cruz
Cheri Beasley
Richard Boulware
Xavier Becerra
Rudy Giuliani
66
18
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
[None - Position will cease to exist]
Mira Murati
Elon Musk
Greg Brockman
Sam Altman
Bret Taylor
Larry Summers
Adam D'Angelo
Andrej Karpathy
Eric Schmidt
Paul Graham
Peter Thiel
Wojciech Zaremba
Ben Horowitz
Jessica Livingston
Marc Benioff
Sheryl Sandberg
Tim Cook
John Doerr
Reed Hastings
Fei Fei Lee
Alexander Wang
George Hotz
Brad Lightcap
Bob Mcgrew
Peter Welinder
Jason Kwon
Mark Chen
Helen Toner
Ilya Sutskever
Emmett Shear
Dario Amodei
Satya Nadela
Jeff Bezos
Demis Hassabis
Robin Li
Clément Delangue
Lila Ibrahim
Alex Karp
Reid Hoffman
Raquel Urtasun
Marc Andreessen
Aidan Gomez
Sandra Rivera
Gary Marcus
Jaime Teevan
Sundar Pichai
Jack Clark
Anna Makanju
Shane Legg
Andrew Ng
Pushmeet Kohli
Yann LeCun
Mark Zuckerberg
Yoshua Bengio
Hinton
Marissa Mayer
Spencer Rascoff
Garry Tan
52
12
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
Katherine Clark
Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG)
87
7
6
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1230
813
OptionProbability
Other
Wyndham Clark
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
65
14
14
8
OptionProbability
University of Puget Sound
Colby College
Other
Colorado School of Mines
Champlain College
Lewis and Clark College
67
19
4
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
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47
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45