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Prediction markets for Classic

Chess: Winner of the 2026 Tepe Sigeman Classical Tournament in Malmo

Apr 6, 8:43 PMMay 8, 11:59 PM

244928

OptionProbability

Arjun Erigaisi

Magnus Carlsen

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

Andy Woodward

Nodirbek Abdusattarov

Jorden Van Foreest

Nils Grandelius

Zhu Jiner

Other

76

17

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

11.36%chance

323866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

588

Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen play world-championship-style classical match before 2030

Feb 25, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

122000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.

Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM

24.41%chance

161639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

568

Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion?

Mar 5, 9:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5773

OptionProbability

Other

Gukesh Dommaraju

Fabiano Caruana

Hikaru Nakamura

Wei Yi

Magnus Carlsen

53

38

3

2

2

1

Can integer factorization be solved in polynomial time on a classical computer?

Feb 7, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.41%chance

12765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

968

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

17738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

Will the 9yo FM Faustino Oro beat the sitting world champion or the highest rating player in classical by 2026 year end?

Sep 23, 2:08 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.27%chance

7620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

688

101

Will Magnus Carlsen play a classical game against Hans Niemann before 2030?

Aug 10, 5:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.7%chance

9380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

When will Ding Liren return to classical chess?

Mar 16, 4:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5285

OptionProbability

2026

2028 or later

2027

41

32

27

Who will win Mr Olympia classic 2026

Jan 22, 9:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

252

OptionProbability

Mike Summerfeld

Ramon Dino

Wesley Vissers

Other

70

10

10

10

Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?

Oct 9, 8:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.59%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

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