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Prediction markets for Classic

Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)

Dec 1, 1:49 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3712737

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Javokhir Sindarov

Hikaru Nakamura

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Vincent Keymer

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

Arjun Erigaisi

Other

Alireza Firouzja

D Gukesh

Anish Giri

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Praggnanandhaa R

Magnus Carlsen

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Vidit Gujrathi

Hans Niemann

Richard Rapport

24

20

16

10

8

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

11.36%chance

323866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

588

Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen play world-championship-style classical match before 2030

Feb 25, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

122000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.

Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM

24.41%chance

161639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

568

Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion?

Mar 5, 9:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5773

OptionProbability

Other

Gukesh Dommaraju

Fabiano Caruana

Hikaru Nakamura

Wei Yi

Magnus Carlsen

53

38

3

2

2

1

Can integer factorization be solved in polynomial time on a classical computer?

Feb 7, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.41%chance

12765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

968

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

17738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

Will someone find an efficient algorithm for calculating DIscrete Logarithms on a classical computer?

Apr 7, 2:29 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

21.89%chance

8181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

97

Who will win Mr Olympia classic 2026

Jan 22, 9:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

252

OptionProbability

Mike Summerfeld

Ramon Dino

Wesley Vissers

Other

70

10

10

10

Will the next original Paper Mario game use the “classic” RPG formula of Paper Mario 64 / The Thousand-Year Door?

Jul 7, 9:35 AMJul 7, 9:29 AM

40.57%chance

639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Warlords of Draenor Classic announced at BlizzCon 2026

Feb 15, 2:01 AMSep 13, 10:59 PM

50%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

World of Warcraft Classic+ announced at BlizzCon 2026

Feb 15, 2:01 AMSep 13, 10:59 PM

50%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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