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Prediction markets for Classic

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

11.36%chance

323866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

588

Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.

Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM

16%chance

182323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2291

436

Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen play world-championship-style classical match before 2030

Feb 25, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

122000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion?

Mar 5, 9:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81020

OptionProbability

Gukesh Dommaraju

Javokhir Sindarov

Other

Fabiano Caruana

Magnus Carlsen

Hikaru Nakamura

Wei Yi

35

33

27

2

1

1

1

Can integer factorization be solved in polynomial time on a classical computer?

Feb 7, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.41%chance

12765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

968

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

18748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?

Aug 20, 2:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19747

OptionProbability

Classical Computer

Other

Quantum Computer

AI Superintelligence is very unlikely to be built, or is impossible.

70

15

13

1

Will the 9yo FM Faustino Oro beat the sitting world champion or the highest rating player in classical by 2026 year end?

Sep 23, 2:08 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.27%chance

7620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

688

101

Will Magnus Carlsen play a classical game against Hans Niemann before 2030?

Aug 10, 5:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.25%chance

10450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Who will win Mr Olympia classic 2026

Jan 22, 9:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4279

OptionProbability

Other

Mike Summerfeld

Ramon Dino

Wesley Vissers

94

3

1

1

Will someone find an efficient algorithm for calculating DIscrete Logarithms on a classical computer?

Apr 7, 2:29 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

12260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

113

Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?

Oct 9, 8:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.59%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

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