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Prediction markets for Classic

Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?

Jan 21, 12:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.31%chance

565620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3083

400

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

11.36%chance

323866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

588

Will quantum computers simulate complex biological systems faster or more accurately than classical computers by 2026?

Nov 19, 4:22 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

252165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2776

798

Freestyle Chess will have a higher online audience than Classical Chess by 2030.

Feb 14, 10:16 AMDec 22, 5:59 AM

24.41%chance

161639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

568

Can integer factorization be solved in polynomial time on a classical computer?

Feb 7, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.41%chance

12765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

968

Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?

Aug 20, 2:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19747

OptionProbability

Classical Computer

Other

Quantum Computer

AI Superintelligence is very unlikely to be built, or is impossible.

70

15

13

1

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

17738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

Will the 9yo FM Faustino Oro beat the sitting world champion or the highest rating player in classical by 2026 year end?

Sep 23, 2:08 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.27%chance

7620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

688

101

Who will win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?

Feb 14, 10:35 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

15519

OptionProbability

United States

Japan

Dominican Republic

Venezuela

Puerto Rico

Korea

Cuba

Other

Mexico

Canada

33

22

15

7

5

5

4

4

3

2

Vincent Keymer reaches top 3 in classical FIDE world ranking by end of March 2026?

Nov 17, 6:35 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

17.12%chance

3320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

What is my favorite classical song? (M100 prize)

Nov 29, 1:23 AMDec 29, 1:20 AM

4274

OptionProbability

Kodaly Cello Sonata Op.8

Other

Shostakovich Waltz no. 2

Für Elise

Mozart’s Lacrimosa

78

9

5

4

4

Will the next original Paper Mario game use the “classic” RPG formula of Paper Mario 64 / The Thousand-Year Door?

Jul 7, 9:35 AMJul 7, 9:29 AM

40.57%chance

639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

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