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Prediction markets for Claude

Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?

Feb 25, 8:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.46%chance

15366116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3805

263

Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?

Feb 25, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.1%chance

467781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2489

402

Claude Opus wrong to terminate conversation?

Aug 15, 7:57 PMDec 31, 8:51 PM

19.37%chance

584260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2040

490

Will Claude Opus 4.5 still be considered frontier by end of year?

Nov 26, 8:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.04%chance

353917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2851

351

Will Claude beat Pokemon before my 4-year old?

Jun 19, 1:09 AMJan 1, 2:08 AM

81.11%chance

181742

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2072

483

Will I think Claude Max is worth $200 by mid December 2025?

Dec 3, 8:52 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

75.18%chance

91494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1740

575

Claude 5 released before March 31?

Aug 26, 8:19 AMApr 1, 6:59 AM

39.04%chance

111027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Within 1 year, will I think Claude Skills are a bigger deal than MCP?

Oct 18, 3:36 AMOct 18, 6:59 AM

38.5%chance

5950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.67%chance

5765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.38%chance

7425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

910

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.6%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

995

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

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