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Prediction markets for Claude

Anthropic share of OpenRouter tokens (%)

Sep 4, 3:33 PM

181006413

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2331706

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

50

29

9

0

Will any of Levent Alpöge’s mathematical results with Claude be proven flawed by the end of the year?

Aug 24, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28%chance

345458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1604

624

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.31%chance

395187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2484

1666

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

86.31%chance

193431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2511

398

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before 2027?

Jun 25, 4:00 PMJan 2, 12:59 AM

44.18%chance

173013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

890

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.01%chance

172834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Within 1 year, will I think Claude Skills are a bigger deal than MCP?

Oct 18, 3:36 AMOct 18, 6:59 AM

63.51%chance

71561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

758

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

Sep 3, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.18%chance

91236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

705

Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?

Jul 1, 1:28 AMJul 1, 1:16 AM

48.69%chance

9624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

974

Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2028?

Dec 17, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.93%chance

6622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

832

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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