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Prediction markets for Claude

Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?

Feb 1, 10:04 AMFeb 8, 10:03 AM

42%chance

406517234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

452

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Jul 25, 6:37 PMJun 30, 6:35 PM

196166053

OptionProbability

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-15

Before 2026-02-08

Before 2026-02-06

Before 2026-02-05

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before January 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026-02-04

98

98

98

98

97

94

86

81

39

25

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will I get banned for using my newly created $100 Claude Max subscription on ClawdBot by February 15th?

Jan 25, 11:50 PMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

13.89%chance

9145066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24399

2624

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

8.51%chance

7431502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32786

3050

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 5 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Feb 2, 4:11 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

302391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

731

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

161596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

1659

Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2026?

Dec 22, 4:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.16%chance

171345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

401

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before March?

Feb 4, 3:41 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

58.71%chance

8711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

839

Anthropic releases any new Claude before their Super Bowl ad runs?

Feb 4, 11:17 PMFeb 8, 6:29 PM

45.41%chance

5477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

Officially-endorsed Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2028?

Dec 17, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.55%chance

4266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

859

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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