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Prediction markets for Claude

Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2025?

Feb 25, 8:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.33%chance

10929134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?

Oct 22, 9:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.25%chance

5017147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4744

211

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2310079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Will Claude Become a Pokemon Master before 2027?

Feb 25, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.83%chance

417045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2568

389

Will GPT-5, OpenAI's open-source model, Claude Opus 4.1, and Gemini 3 all be released this week?

Aug 4, 10:50 PMAug 11, 10:49 PM

6.87%chance

113129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3683

272

Will Anthropic host a Claude Minecraft Twitch stream before 2026?

Feb 26, 12:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

151883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Claude beat Pokemon before my 4-year old?

Jun 19, 1:09 AMJan 1, 2:08 AM

66.86%chance

131180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1420

704

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.67%chance

5765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Will "So how well is Claude playing Pokémon?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 11:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.05%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

976

Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 12:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.29%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

979

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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