OptionProbability
Inkling (or any Thinking Machines model)
Qwen 4 (or any Qwen model)
Gemini 4 Carbon
GPT-6.2 Astra (6.x counts)
Claude Fable 5.5 (5.2+ counts)
GLM-5.4 (or any GLM model)
GPT-6.2 Sol
Muse Wonder 1.x
Nemotron 4 (or any Nemotron model)
Any Nano Banana model
MiMo V2.7 / V3 (or any MiMo model)
Grok 4.8 (or any Grok/Composer model)
GPT-6.2 Luna (6.x counts)
Claude Opus 5.6
DeepSeek V4.1 Pro / V5 (or any DeepSeek model)
MiniMax M3.2 (or any MiniMax model)
Any Mistral model
Gemini 4 Flash-Lite
Muse Spark 1.x/2.x
Gemini 4 Flash
Claude Haiku 5.6
GPT-6.2 Terra
Kimi K3.2 / K4 (or any Kimi model)
Claude Sonnet 5.6
Beam 1.x (or any Reflection model)
Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) model
100
96
93
89
86
81
80
78
71
65
63
62
58
57
53
48
40
39
33
32
31
24
18
17
6
OptionVotes
YES
NO
410
$2.0tn - $2.49tn
$1.5tn - $1.99tn
$2.5tn - $2.99tn
$1.0tn - $1.49tn
$3.0tn - $3.49tn
$3.5tn - $4.0tn
Below $1.0tn
Above $4.0tn
22
16
10
8
7
OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT
OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT
Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)
88
4
184
54
Yes
N/A (unclear)
No
60
23
106
85