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Prediction markets for Clay

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28%chance

226102486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4797

153

Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?

Feb 28, 3:09 PMDec 31, 9:01 PM

40%chance

13022398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

1091

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

6116090

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

40

26

15

12

8

Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved by 2030?

Jan 2, 9:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.57%chance

6712301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

990

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.89%chance

10210773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3820

2023

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

513749

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

55

20

19

5

1

Will Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?

Oct 1, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.4%chance

423497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

284

110

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2040?

Feb 13, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.05%chance

152592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2138

468

Will any of the remaining Clay Millenium problems be solved with substantial help from an AI before 2030?

Jan 6, 8:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.78%chance

241507

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

112

Bon Clay Stock

May 5, 12:56 PMMay 5, 9:59 PM

13701

OptionProbability

NO

YES

421

230

Who will win the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene's seat (GA-14)?

Mar 10, 4:15 PMJun 10, 4:11 PM

8446

OptionProbability

Clay Fuller (R)

Shawn Harris (D)

Colton Moore (R)

Other

91

7

1

1

Will the Clay Foundation adjust for inflation?

Nov 16, 1:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.94%chance

545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

112

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