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Prediction markets for Clear

Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?

Mar 30, 5:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

54.52%chance

26127628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1827

1122

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

Nov 25, 11:02 PMDec 30, 4:59 PM

35.39%chance

329654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15059

4141

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6060

4388

Will the sky be clear in Sydney during the 2028 total solar eclipse?

Mar 8, 3:07 AMJul 22, 11:59 PM

58.13%chance

187433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11782

8487

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.84%chance

113842

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

769

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.33%chance

182193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

722

Will Ozempic/GLP-1 Agonists become an issue with a clear partisan divide in the US in the next 5 years?

Oct 4, 9:38 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

40.33%chance

161221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

822

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM

36.12%chance

71161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3991

2255

Facebook will ship a clearly traditional Avatar system on PC by mid 2026, no more forced ambiguous self-presentatation

Jan 10, 9:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.22%chance

51130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

488

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

17738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

Detroit LVT: Will Detroit's decline clearly reverse? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.97%chance

10271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

937

569

Will the US establish a clear AI developer liability framework for AI harms by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.2%chance

6116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

146

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