Cleric News

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.44%chance

19162826013

OptionVotes

YES

37612

4653

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.06%chance

9039266

OptionVotes

YES

17739

1192

Will America send troops to Iran?

Jan 13, 4:44 PMDec 31, 4:42 PM

40.15%chance

9916160

OptionVotes

YES

1165

1052

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

6115644

OptionVotes

YES

2708

369

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

3725

268

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.5%chance

368304

OptionVotes

YES

1755

570

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Jun 9, 11:15 PMDec 31, 11:35 PM

273433

OptionProbability

Hours

Days

Weeks

Fortnights

OpenAI models released to the public

Months

Tumbles-related prediction markets (will be N/A'd of no clarification is given by Jun 18, 2025.)

New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)

Years

Asses eaten (only ones since market creation can count. Tumbles calls the shots on how this one is operationalized.)

Manifests (2025's is 1st)

U.S. National Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)

U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)

Canadian National Elections (2025's is 0th)

Decades

100

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Mar 9, 4:17 PMMar 9, 4:14 PM

121748

OptionProbability

Other

Alireza Arafi

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Reza Pahlavi

Ari Larijani

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? [Polymarket]

Jun 25, 5:29 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

111105

OptionProbability

40+

60+

80+

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

YES

350

142

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45%chance

10154

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?

Feb 21, 3:46 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.47%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

Cleric News

Prediction markets for Cleric

Prediction markets for Cleric

Prediction markets for Cleric

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Will America send troops to Iran?

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? [Polymarket]

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?

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