Cleric News

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.86%chance

17622363588

OptionVotes

YES

13250

8311

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.04%chance

8325578

OptionVotes

YES

8426

2764

Will America send troops to Iran?

Jan 13, 4:44 PMDec 31, 4:42 PM

63%chance

8312162

OptionVotes

YES

1565

682

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

5411043

OptionVotes

YES

1251

800

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.81%chance

279331

OptionVotes

YES

1399

715

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.78%chance

192586

OptionVotes

YES

1283

779

Will a new regime be installed in Iran before April 1st?

Mar 3, 7:40 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

1.69%chance

232303

OptionVotes

YES

763

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Mar 9, 4:17 PMMar 9, 4:14 PM

111643

OptionProbability

Other

Alireza Arafi

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Reza Pahlavi

Ari Larijani

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be confirmed dead by the end of March?

Mar 6, 3:36 AMApr 1, 11:59 PM

8.96%chance

341192

OptionVotes

YES

319

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

111094

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

Will Iran get a new Supreme Leader before the end of April?

Mar 24, 9:37 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

17%chance

9645

OptionVotes

YES

221

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

Feb 20, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.6%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

116

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Prediction markets for Cleric

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Prediction markets for Cleric

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Will America send troops to Iran?

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Will a new regime be installed in Iran before April 1st?

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be confirmed dead by the end of March?

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Will Iran get a new Supreme Leader before the end of April?

Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?

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