Cleric News

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.63%chance

19673066224

OptionVotes

YES

47065

4108

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

9758226

OptionVotes

YES

23187

881

Will America send troops to Iran?

Jan 13, 4:44 PMDec 31, 4:42 PM

37.58%chance

10016240

OptionVotes

YES

1239

1005

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

6216091

OptionVotes

YES

2708

369

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

3725

268

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

80.53%chance

399304

OptionVotes

YES

2034

492

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Jun 9, 11:15 PMDec 31, 11:35 PM

303538

OptionProbability

Hours

Days

Weeks

Fortnights

OpenAI models released to the public

Months

Tumbles-related prediction markets (will be N/A'd of no clarification is given by Jun 18, 2025.)

Years

Asses eaten (only ones since market creation can count. Tumbles calls the shots on how this one is operationalized.)

New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)

Manifests (2025's is 1st)

U.S. National Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)

U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)

Canadian National Elections (2025's is 0th)

Decades

100

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Mar 9, 4:17 PMMar 9, 4:14 PM

121773

OptionProbability

Other

Alireza Arafi

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Reza Pahlavi

Ari Larijani

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

77.84%chance

341266

OptionVotes

YES

188

[Order of the Stick] Will the Order visit Klxba'f nfgeny sbegerff before the end of the comic?

May 17, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.81%chance

7191

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

YES

350

142

Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?

Feb 21, 3:46 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.47%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

Cleric News

Prediction markets for Cleric

Prediction markets for Cleric

Prediction markets for Cleric

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Will America send troops to Iran?

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

[Order of the Stick] Will the Order visit Klxba'f nfgeny sbegerff before the end of the comic?

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?

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