Cleric News

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.04%chance

10031131296

OptionVotes

YES

12338

8647

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.65%chance

5510992

OptionVotes

YES

7758

3034

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

Jun 9, 11:15 PMDec 31, 11:35 PM

253010

OptionProbability

Hours

Days

Weeks

OpenAI models released to the public

Fortnights

Months

Tumbles-related prediction markets (will be N/A'd of no clarification is given by Jun 18, 2025.)

New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)

Asses eaten (only ones since market creation can count. Tumbles calls the shots on how this one is operationalized.)

Years

Manifests (2025's is 1st)

U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)

U.S. National Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)

Canadian National Elections (2025's is 0th)

Decades

100

When the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next Supreme Leader?

Nov 25, 10:02 PMDec 2, 11:59 PM

7626

OptionProbability

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Other

Mojtaba Khamenei

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

Alireza Arafi

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

42.2%chance

17540

OptionVotes

YES

117

Will America send troops to Iran?

Jan 13, 4:44 PMDec 31, 4:42 PM

18.3%chance

13375

OptionVotes

YES

211

[Order of the Stick] Will the Order visit Klxba'f nfgeny sbegerff before the end of the comic?

May 17, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.81%chance

7191

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will Iranian protest successfully over Ali Khamenei's term before 1st march

Jan 14, 11:34 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

13.17%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

257

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

YES

350

142

Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?

Feb 21, 3:46 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.47%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

Cleric News

Prediction markets for Cleric

Prediction markets for Cleric

Prediction markets for Cleric

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?

When the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next Supreme Leader?

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Will America send troops to Iran?

[Order of the Stick] Will the Order visit Klxba'f nfgeny sbegerff before the end of the comic?

Will Iranian protest successfully over Ali Khamenei's term before 1st march

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

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