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J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

If you write an argument that breaks down the 'okay outcomes' into lots of distinct categories, without breaking down internal conjuncts and so on, Reality is very impressed with how disjunctive this sounds and allocates more probability.

Nigel Farage

Other

Andy Burnham

Wes Streeting

Keir Starmer

Kemi Badenoch

Ed Miliband

Robert Jenrick

Zack Polanski

James Cleverly

Angela Rayner

Rupert Lowe

Ed Davey

Boris Johnson

Lawrence Newport

Rachel Reeves

Danny Kruger

Matt Clifford

Jeremy Clarkson

Jeremy Corbyn

Richard Tice

Idris Elba

Angela Rayner

Nigel Farage

Other

Wes Streeting

Shabana Mahmood

Andy Burnham

David Lammy

Ed Miliband

Yvette Cooper

Kemi Badenoch

Ed Davey

James Cleverly

Lisa Nandy

Robert Jenrick

Dan Jarvis

Zack Polanski

Rachel Reeves

Jeremy Hunt

Rishi Sunak

Suella Braverman

Tom Tugendhat

Priti Patel

Mel Stride

Keir Starmer

Nigel Farage

Andy Burnham

Robert Jenrick

Angela Rayner

Wes Streeting

Yvette Cooper

Bridget Phillipson

Kemi Badenoch

Jonathan Reynolds

Johnny Mercer

Oliver Dowden

Mark Harper

Victoria Prentis

Tom Tugendhat

Rachel Reeves

Shabana Mahmood

John Healey

Louise Haigh

Dan Jarvis

Suella Braverman

Mel Stride

David Lammy

Pat McFadden

Peter Kyle

Ian Murray

Lisa Nandy

Emily Thornberry

Priti Patel

Jeremy Hunt

James Cleverly

Liz Kendall

Steve Reed

Hilary Benn

Rebecca Long-Bailey

Ed Milliband

Jess Phillips

Ian Lavery

Daisy Cooper

Penny Mordaunt

Gillian Keegan

Jo Stevens

Clive Lewis

Barry Gardiner

Angela Eagle

David Miliband

Michael Gove

John McDonnell

Stephen Kinnock

Ed Davey

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Thangam Debbonaire

Diane Abbott

Kwasi Kwarteng

Jude Bellingham

JK Rowling

David Tennant

Dominic Cummings

William, Prince of Wales

Piers Morgan

Angela Rayner

Wes Streeting

David Lammy

Nigel Farage

Other

Shabana Mahmood

Andy Burnham

Ed Milliband

Al Carns

Kemi Badenoch

Lisa Nandy

Robert Jenrick

Zack Polanski

Rishi Sunak

Yvette Cooper

Dan Jarvis

James Cleverly

Ed Davey

Jeremy Hunt

Ben Wallace

Rosena Allin-Khan

Keir Starmer

Penny Mordaunt

Suella Braverman

Rebecca Long-Bailey

Someone Else

Emily Thornberry

Jess Phillips

Clive Lewis

Diane Abbott

John McDonnell

Barry Gardiner

Ian Lavery

Michael Gove

Sajid Javid

Brandon Lewis

Grant Shapps

Tom Tugendhat

Boris Johnson

Theresa May

Andrea Leadsom

Stephen Crabb

Liam Fox

Nadhim Zahawi

Priti Patel

Angela Eagle

Hilary Benn

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Stephen Kinnock

Michelle Donelan

Johnny Mercer

Niko Omilana

Rachel Reeves

Other

James Cleverly

Kemi Badenoch

Robert Jenrick

Penny Mordaunt

Suella Braverman

David Cameron

Nigel Farage

Priti Patel

Kemi Badenoch

Other

James Cleverly

Robert Jenrick

K. Somebody discovers a new AI paradigm that's powerful enough and matures fast enough to beat deep learning to the punch, and the new paradigm is much much more alignable than giant inscrutable matrices of floating-point numbers.

I. The tech path to AGI superintelligence is naturally slow enough and gradual enough, that world-destroyingly-critical alignment problems never appear faster than previous discoveries generalize to allow safe further experimentation.

C. Solving prosaic alignment on the first critical try is not as difficult, nor as dangerous, nor taking as much extra time, as Yudkowsky predicts; whatever effort is put forth by the leading coalition works inside of their lead time.

Something wonderful happens that isn't well-described by any option listed. (The semantics of this option may change if other options are added.)

A. Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.

B. Humanity puts forth a tremendous effort, and delays AI for long enough, and puts enough desperate work into alignment, that alignment gets solved first.

D. Early powerful AGIs realize that they wouldn't be able to align their own future selves/successors if their intelligence got raised further, and work honestly with humans on solving the problem in a way acceptable to both factions.

M. "We'll make the AI do our AI alignment homework" just works as a plan. (Eg the helping AI doesn't need to be smart enough to be deadly; the alignment proposals that most impress human judges are honest and truthful and successful.)

O. Early applications of AI/AGI drastically increase human civilization's sanity and coordination ability; enabling humanity to solve alignment, or slow down further descent into AGI, etc. (Not in principle mutex with all other answers.)

E. Whatever strange motivations end up inside an unalignable AGI, or the internal slice through that AGI which codes its successor, they max out at a universe full of cheerful qualia-bearing life and an okay outcome for existing humans.

F. Somebody pulls off a hat trick involving blah blah acausal blah blah simulations blah blah, or other amazingly clever idea, which leads an AGI to put the reachable galaxies to good use despite that AGI not being otherwise alignable.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.

H. Many competing AGIs form an equilibrium whereby no faction is allowed to get too powerful, and humanity is part of this equilibrium and survives and gets a big chunk of cosmic pie.

G. It's impossible/improbable for something sufficiently smarter and more capable than modern humanity to be created, that it can just do whatever without needing humans to cooperate; nor does it successfully cheat/trick us.

L. Earth's present civilization crashes before powerful AGI, and the next civilization that rises is wiser and better at ops. (Exception to 'okay' as defined originally, will be said to count as 'okay' even if many current humans die.)

N. A crash project at augmenting human intelligence via neurotech, training mentats via neurofeedback, etc, produces people who can solve alignment before it's too late, despite Earth civ not slowing AI down much.

You are fooled by at least one option on this list, which out of many tries, ends up sufficiently well-aimed at your personal ideals / prejudices / the parts you understand less well / your own personal indulgences in wishful thinking.

Nigel Farage

Boris Johnson

Robert Jenrick

Tom Tugendhat

James Cleverly

Kemi Badenoch

Priti Patel

Claire Coutinho

Chris Philip

YES

NO

Sparks Brain Preservation (Oregon Cryonics), UP

Alcor, DOWN

Alcor, UP

Cryonics Institute, UP

Cryonics Institute, DOWN

Other

Tomorrow Bio / EBF, UP

Tomorrow Bio / EBF, DOWN