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Prediction markets for Climate Action

Will Trump exact punishment on South Park?

Jul 28, 3:54 PMDec 31, 4:46 PM

5.51%chance

599258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4141

241

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

466318

OptionProbability

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

Other (10m+ deaths)

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Worldwide Pandemic

29

29

27

8

8

7

4

Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

May 7, 5:35 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

14.39%chance

17855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

906

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Will the US attack Fordow AGAIN before 2030?

Jun 22, 6:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.02%chance

7260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

[Metaculus] Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?

Nov 7, 2:31 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

70.47%chance

7207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

261

110

Will President Trump attempt to end the climate hysteria in 2025?

Feb 6, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

69.73%chance

7158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

66

Will Australia enter into any similar agreement to the Falepili Union with another Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

68.93%chance

594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

129

Will any other country enter into a similar agreement to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74.61%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

61

Will any of these countries enter into a pact similar to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?

Nov 10, 12:10 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

146

OptionProbability

New Zealand

Japan

China

USA

Papua New Guinea

Indonesia

Philippines

Taiwan

France

UK

Chile

78

75

59

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

Which of these Pacific Island countries will sign 'climate refuge pacts' with Australia before 2030?

Nov 10, 11:30 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

445

OptionProbability

Tonga

Kiribati

Vanuatu

Fiji

Nauru

Palau

Marshall Islands

Micronesia

Samoa

Solomon Islands

59

59

59

59

51

50

50

50

50

41

Do you care enough about CLIMATE CHANGE to change your actions? (personal poll)

Jan 21, 4:19 PM

910

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