OptionProbability
Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases
Gene Editing Therapies
Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
Regenerative Medicine
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat
Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes
Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles
Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer
Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
Bioprinting
Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases
Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships
a molecule derived using Alphafold (current or successor models) achieves over $1B of commercial retail sales
Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)
viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)
Human-level AGI
Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars
Space-Based Manufacturing
Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³
Seafloor Mining Robots
Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew
Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy
Quantum Computing Applications
Graphene semiconductor electronics
ASI
Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure
Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery
Lunar Bases
Moon base
Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use
More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)
Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure
Britain finishes HS2
Direct Cognitive Collaboration
Photonic computing
A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years
Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities
Commercial asteroid mining
Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue
Datacenters in space
Hypersonic commercial passenger travel
Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.
Joywire
Commercial fusion power
Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
Fast travel across the globe
AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts
Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects
Nuclear powered cargo ships
City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks
Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere
Mars Base
Nuclear Thermal Rockets
Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)
Cryonics with Successful Revival
Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol
Commercial satellite to ground power transmission
Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories
Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure
Human Mind Uploading
Changing the height of an adult at will
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
Orbital Habitats
Fusion Drives
Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells
Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation
Space-to-Earth power stations
Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light
Human sex change at chromosome level
Changing a person's race at will
Von Neumann Probe
A skyhook space structure in LEO
Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids
Vacuum Airships
Time travel to the future
Commercial cold fusion
Space Elevator
Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms
Antimatter bombs
Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)
Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)
1% Dyson sphere coverage
Faster then Light Propulsion
Time travel to the past
96
95
94
93
90
87
87
87
86
85
85
84
84
83
81
80
77
77
76
76
75
75
74
73
72
70
69
69
68
68
67
67
64
63
61
60
57
57
52
50
49
49
47
45
45
43
42
42
41
41
40
39
39
37
37
35
35
35
34
31
30
30
30
29
29
28
26
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
21
18
17
14
14
8
6
6
6
6
5
4
4
3
2
OptionProbability
DeepSeek
Zhipu / Z.ai
Other (any company not listed above)
Xiaomi
Alibaba (Qwen)
MiniMax
Tencent
Moonshot AI
StepFun
Anthropic
OpenAI
16
10
10
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
5
5
