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Prediction markets for Cloud Intelligence
Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?
Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM
9.28%chance
214429
OptionVotes
3126
320
If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?
Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.35%chance
61165
OptionVotes
1098
911
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Jun 1, 6:49 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
86.31%chance
9360
OptionVotes
363
68
Will Michael Saylor show up on the Joe Rogan Experience by 2030?
May 5, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
91.53%chance
5277
OptionVotes
329
30
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?
Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
43.99%chance
5142
OptionVotes
121
99
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?
Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
85.2%chance
5137
OptionVotes
208
45
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
81.62%chance
587
OptionVotes
196
74
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?
Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
79.39%chance
782
OptionVotes
137
36
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
82.14%chance
265
OptionVotes
135
41
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?
Jun 1, 6:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
33.78%chance
120
OptionVotes
90
56