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OptionProbability
2025-02-01: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs MONTEREY BAY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-23: REAL SALT LAKE vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-02: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-29: LOS ANGELES GALAXY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-08: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC (US Open Cup)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-21: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (US Open Cup)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SAN DIEGO (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-24: HOUSTON DYNAMO vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-31: AUSTIN vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-13: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-21: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs ST. LOUIS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-28: SAN DIEGO vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-06: VANCOUVER WHITECAPS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-05: VANCOUVER WHITECAPS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-03-30: SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-01-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES FC (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-05: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-08: NEW YORK RED BULLS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-12: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs CHICAGO FIRE (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs ST. LOUIS CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-03-09: MINNESOTA UNITED FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-16: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-22: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs CHARLOTTE (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-17: NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31: ST. LOUIS CITY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31: ST. LOUIS CITY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-14: PORTLAND TIMBERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-29: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES GALAXY (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs NEW YORK RED BULLS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-13: MINNESOTA UNITED FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-20: SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-27: REAL SALT LAKE vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Donald Trump talks about the case
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
Mangione extradited to NY in 2024
Luigi Mangione pleads "not guilty" when first arraigned on the New York indictment against him
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Prosecutors seek the death penalty
Luigi gets a marriage proposal
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Defense requests change in venue
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Polling from established firm shows more people have a positive than negative view of Mangione
Major media outlet releases exclusive interview with Mangione family
Defense seeks competence evaluation
“JNOV” (or its expansion) appears in court transcripts or mainstream news coverage of the trial
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Another CEO of a publicly traded company is murdered
Mangione is ever found incompetent to stand trial
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Mangione attempts suicide
Suspect makes a confession
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
Mangione represents himself in all hearings
Mangione takes a plea deal before trial (Duplicate)
The grand jury does not return an indictment the first time the cases presented to them
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
94
58
54
43
42
37
31
23
22
21
18
15
15
13
11
6
6
2
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2025-02-26: REAL SOCIEDAD vs REAL MADRID (Copa del Rey)
2025-03-04: REAL MADRID vs ATLETICO MADRID (UEFA Champions League)
2025-03-09: REAL MADRID vs RAYO VALLECANO (La Liga)
2025-03-15: VILLARREAL vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-03-29: REAL MADRID vs LEGANES (La Liga)
2025-04-13: ALAVES vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-04-20: REAL MADRID vs ATHLETIC CLUB (La Liga)
2025-06-22: REAL MADRID vs PACHUCA (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-27: RED BULL SALZBURG vs REAL MADRID (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-22: REAL MADRID vs PACHUCA (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-27: RED BULL SALZBURG vs REAL MADRID (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-03-29: REAL MADRID vs LEGANES (La Liga)
2025-03-29: REAL MADRID vs LEGANES (La Liga)
2025-03-29: REAL MADRID vs LEGANES (La Liga)
2025-04-23: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-04-23: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-04: REAL MADRID vs CELTA VIGO (La Liga)
2025-05-04: REAL MADRID vs CELTA VIGO (La Liga)
2025-05-14: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-05-14: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-05-18: SEVILLA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-18: SEVILLA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-24: REAL MADRID vs REAL SOCIEDAD (La Liga)
2025-05-24: REAL MADRID vs REAL SOCIEDAD (La Liga)
2025-05-24: REAL MADRID vs REAL SOCIEDAD (La Liga)
2025-07-01: REAL MADRID vs JUVENTUS (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-01: REAL MADRID vs JUVENTUS (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-01: REAL MADRID vs JUVENTUS (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-01: REAL MADRID vs JUVENTUS (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-05: REAL MADRID vs BORUSSIA DORTMUND (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-05: REAL MADRID vs BORUSSIA DORTMUND (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-07-05: REAL MADRID vs BORUSSIA DORTMUND (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-05-03: REAL MADRID vs CELTA VIGO (La Liga)
2025-05-17: SEVILLA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-08-17: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-24: OVIEDO vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-08-31: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-09-14: REAL SOCIEDAD vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-21: REAL MADRID vs ESPANYOL (La Liga)
2025-09-24: LEVANTE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-28: ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-10-05: REAL MADRID vs VILLARREAL (La Liga)
2025-10-19: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-08-17: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-24: OVIEDO vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-08-31: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-09-14: REAL SOCIEDAD vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-21: REAL MADRID vs ESPANYOL (La Liga)
2025-09-24: LEVANTE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-28: ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-10-05: REAL MADRID vs VILLARREAL (La Liga)
2025-10-19: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-08-17: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-24: OVIEDO vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-08-31: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-09-14: REAL SOCIEDAD vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-21: REAL MADRID vs ESPANYOL (La Liga)
2025-09-24: LEVANTE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-09-28: ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-10-05: REAL MADRID vs VILLARREAL (La Liga)
2025-10-19: GETAFE vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-10-26: REAL MADRID vs BARCELONA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-08-19: REAL MADRID vs OSASUNA (La Liga)
2025-08-30: REAL MADRID vs MALLORCA (La Liga)
2025-04-06: REAL MADRID vs VALENCIA (La Liga)
2025-04-25: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (Copa del Rey)
2025-03-01: REAL BETIS vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-03-12: ATLETICO MADRID vs REAL MADRID (UEFA Champions League)
2025-04-01: REAL MADRID vs REAL SOCIEDAD (Copa del Rey)
2025-06-18: REAL MADRID vs AL-HILAL SAUDI FC (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-18: REAL MADRID vs AL-HILAL SAUDI FC (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-04-08: ARSENAL vs REAL MADRID (UEFA Champions League)
2025-04-16: REAL MADRID vs ARSENAL (UEFA Champions League)
2025-04-05: REAL MADRID vs VALENCIA (La Liga)
2025-04-26: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (Copa del Rey)
2025-04-26: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (Copa del Rey)
2025-05-11: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-11: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-05-11: BARCELONA vs REAL MADRID (La Liga)
2025-07-09: PARIS SAINT GERMAIN vs REAL MADRID (FIFA Club World Cup)
100
100
100
100
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
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50
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50
50
50
50
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50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2025-02-26: TOTTENHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-03-01: MANCHESTER CITY vs PLYMOUTH (FA Cup)
2025-04-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs LEICESTER (Premier League)
2025-04-12: MANCHESTER CITY vs CRYSTAL PALACE (Premier League)
2025-04-19: EVERTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-03-30: BOURNEMOUTH vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-04-22: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-04-22: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-04-22: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-04-26: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-05-03: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-04-28: MANCHESTER CITY vs ASTON VILLA (Premier League)
2025-05-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs BOURNEMOUTH (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-05-02: MANCHESTER CITY vs WOLVES (Premier League)
2025-06-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs WYDAD AC (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-18: MANCHESTER CITY vs WYDAD AC (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-04-26: NOTTINGHAM FOREST vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-04-27: NOTTINGHAM FOREST vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-25: FULHAM vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-06-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs AL AIN (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-23: MANCHESTER CITY vs AL AIN (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-06-26: JUVENTUS vs MANCHESTER CITY (FIFA Club World Cup)
2025-03-29: BOURNEMOUTH vs MANCHESTER CITY (FA Cup)
2025-04-05: MANCHESTER UNITED vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-05-10: SOUTHAMPTON vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-03-08: NOTTINGHAM FOREST vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
2025-03-15: MANCHESTER CITY vs BRIGHTON (Premier League)
2025-04-06: MANCHESTER UNITED vs MANCHESTER CITY (Premier League)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
98
98
98
98
98
96
96
96
95
95
50
6
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Any Major League Soccer club
None (no new contract in 2025 at any club)
Bayern Munich (new contract in 2025)
Any Bundesliga club other than Bayern
Any club in the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1 or Serie A
Any other professional European club
Any other professional club outside Europe or MLS
98
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-12: GILLINGHAM vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League Cup)
2025-08-09: AFC WIMBLEDON vs LINCOLN (League One)
2025-08-16: READING vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-08-19: AFC WIMBLEDON vs CARDIFF (League One)
2025-08-23: AFC WIMBLEDON vs BARNSLEY (League One)
2025-08-30: BRADFORD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-09-06: BOLTON vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-09-13: AFC WIMBLEDON vs ROTHERHAM (League One)
2025-09-20: DONCASTER vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-09-27: AFC WIMBLEDON vs WYCOMBE (League One)
2025-08-01: LUTON vs AFC WIMBLEDON (League One)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-19: SUTTON UTD vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-22: AFC WIMBLEDON vs MILLWALL (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-07-26: SOUTHEND vs AFC WIMBLEDON (Friendlies Clubs)
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
Alliance for Global Justice
International Workers of the World (IWW)
Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)
UNICEF
Media Matters for America
Planned Parenthood
Greenpeace
AFL-CIO
Oxfam
GiveDirectly
United Auto Workers (UAW)
Southern Poverty Law Center
Archive Of Our Own (AO3)
NAACP
Amnesty International
League of Conservation Voters
Sierra Club
GiveWell
American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)
OpenAI
The United Methodist Church (UMC)
Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)
85
50
50
50
50
50
47
47
45
45
41
37
34
33
31
31
31
31
28
26
26
16
15
OptionProbability
Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025
Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League
At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025
Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)
Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027
Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025
At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
The European Juggling Convention 2025 is cancelled
100
66
55
53
46
41
24
22
5
OptionProbability
Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case
Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial
Prosecution seeks additional charges other than murder
Defense files motion to suppress evidence
Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public
Defense requests change in venue
Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea
A public figure calls for the death penalty
Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public
Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause
Bail hearing results in release with monitoring
Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts
Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity
Competency evaluation is sought by the defense
Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence
Court grants competency evaluation
Mangione reported to be in a new relationship
Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction
Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents
We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment
Gag order imposed on case participants
Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan
Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder
Mangione attempts suicide
Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes
Mangione assaulted while in custody
Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point
Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)
Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice
Defense claims violation of Miranda rights
100
100
100
69
68
63
55
53
52
48
48
48
48
48
45
43
41
37
37
37
37
31
31
31
22
20
20
17
17
8
OptionProbability
Everglades
Strip club
Yacht / sailing
Military base
Theme park rides
Space launch pad
Concert / club / rave
A tiger / big cat private zoo or animal sanctuary
MMA fight arena
90
88
85
76
72
71
69
62
57
OptionProbability
Use up all of my tea ☕
Write 10 sonnets ✍🏻
Submit a play to my theatre club's short play festival 🎭
Donate my hair ✂️
Learn to whistle with two fingers 👆
Try 15 new recipes 👨🏻🍳
Eat good vegan cheese 🧀
Reach wave 4500 on tier 18 of "The Tower" 🗼
Speak with an MP about prediction markets 📈
Win a rap battle 🎤
Fix my dandruff ❄️
Donate plasma 20 times 🩸
75
55
55
55
55
55
50
50
44
41
28
28
OptionProbability
0-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41+
20
20
20
20
20