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Prediction markets for CMI

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28%chance

226102486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4797

153

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

6116090

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

40

26

15

12

8

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.89%chance

10210773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3820

2023

In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Sep 30, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

513749

OptionProbability

2030-2049

2025-2029

2050-2074

2075-2099

Other

55

20

19

5

1

Will Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?

Oct 1, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.4%chance

423497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

284

110

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2040?

Oct 1, 4:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70%chance

442933

OptionVotes

NO

YES

283

71

Will I get 10 or more problems correct on the individual rounds at CMIMC 2026 in total?

Mar 5, 3:15 AMMar 28, 10:59 PM

82.53%chance

311440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217

46

Which team will win CMIMC? (add more answers!)

Mar 6, 12:24 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

181164

OptionProbability

xor

Alphastar

Texas

the lone sigmas

Other

mayhapsperbechance

The Jigglypuff Invaded

lexington

Florida

addicts

Phillips Academy A

The Jolly Brouhaha

PEA Chestnuts

28

24

20

14

6

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

From what state will the winning team at CMIMC come from?

Jan 29, 4:06 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

21893

OptionProbability

Texas

Multiple

California

Massachusetts

New Jersey

Other

Virginia

Florida

32

31

25

4

3

3

2

1

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