OptionProbability
December 2025, or before
November 2025, or before
October 2025, or before
September 2025, or before
August 2025, or before
July 2025, or before
April 2025
May 2025, or before
June 2025, or before
74
71
66
59
50
5
0
Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with driver present
Cybersecurity incident caused by AI written code
Any incident involving prompt injection in production
Another deadly crime planned with the use of LLMs (after Trump hotel explosion)
Any incident that results in internal investigation, caused by the use of AI by law enforcement
Cybersecurity incident caused by AI inference in production
[Duplicate]
Serious incident involving persuasion or blackmail by AI system
Deadly incident involving autonomous manufacturing equipment
Serious incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior
Cybersecurity incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior
Deadly incident involving autonomous military equipment
Deadly incident caused by AI medical system or equipment
Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with no driver present
100
81
72
63
62
51
48
44
36
35
33
32
30
25
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