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Top stories

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Authors

12

1 year ago

Albanese Approval Turns Positive as Newspoll Extends Labor Lead

Albanese Approval Turns Positive as Newspoll Extends Labor Lead

Authors

16

1 year ago

Albanese Government Advances 5% Deposit Scheme to October 1 Amid Opposition Criticism and House Price Concerns

Albanese Government Advances 5% Deposit Scheme to October 1 Amid Opposition Criticism and House Price Concerns

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Coalition

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.76%chance

4410757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

543

Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?

Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

58%chance

337173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

424

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

Jan 30, 6:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.14%chance

115323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2419

101

Will an Arab party be in the next Israeli coalition?

Apr 24, 7:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.5%chance

8617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

80

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

66.16%chance

9512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

715

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

30%chance

21466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?

May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

45.09%chance

6439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

61.44%chance

4360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

792

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

56

Will "A high integrity/epistemics political coalition?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 15, 6:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Which electoral coalitions will happen in the 2027 Polish parlimentary election?

Aug 15, 2:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

KO + PSL

Rozwój Plus + PSL

Rozwój Plus + Polska 2050

KO + Polska 2050

PiS + Rozwój Plus

76

50

50

50

50

Which parties will be part of the ruling coalition after the 2027 Polish parlimentary election?

Jun 9, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

112

OptionProbability

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

Koalicja Obywatelska

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

Nowa Lewica

Konfederacja

Polska 2050

Razem

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej

69

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

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