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Top stories

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Authors

12

9 months ago

Albanese Approval Turns Positive as Newspoll Extends Labor Lead

Albanese Approval Turns Positive as Newspoll Extends Labor Lead

Authors

16

9 months ago

Albanese Government Advances 5% Deposit Scheme to October 1 Amid Opposition Criticism and House Price Concerns

Albanese Government Advances 5% Deposit Scheme to October 1 Amid Opposition Criticism and House Price Concerns

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Coalition

Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?

Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.71%chance

316725

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1325

493

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.66%chance

275814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3058

327

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

Jan 30, 6:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.14%chance

115323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2419

101

WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?

Mar 1, 2:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.79%chance

341996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

153

Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Sep 22, 6:35 PMMar 22, 7:31 PM

5519

OptionProbability

3 parties

No majority possible with only broadly centrist parties

2 parties (or less)

4 parties (or more)

39

32

16

14

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

66.16%chance

9512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

715

Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?

May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

60%chance

6314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

56

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?

Mar 1, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12117

OptionProbability

AfD + BSW

CDU + BSW + SPD

CDU + SPD

CDU + Left + BSW

Left + SPD + Greens

None by 2031

CDU + Left + SPD

CDU + SPD + Greens

AfD alone

Other

Left + BSW + SPD

AfD + CDU

18

14

11

9

9

8

7

6

6

5

3

3

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

50.62%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

988

Will "A high integrity/epistemics political coalition?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 15, 6:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

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