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Top stories

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Trump Tariff Fears Eclipse China Security Worries in New Australian Poll

Authors

12

7 months ago

Albanese Approval Turns Positive as Newspoll Extends Labor Lead

Albanese Approval Turns Positive as Newspoll Extends Labor Lead

Authors

16

7 months ago

Albanese Government Advances 5% Deposit Scheme to October 1 Amid Opposition Criticism and House Price Concerns

Albanese Government Advances 5% Deposit Scheme to October 1 Amid Opposition Criticism and House Price Concerns

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Coalition

Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?

Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.71%chance

316725

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1325

493

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.66%chance

275814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3058

327

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

Jan 30, 6:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.14%chance

115323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2690

372

Which Estonian political parties will be in the coalition after the 2027 parliamentary election?

Aug 16, 2:45 PMMar 7, 9:59 PM

42326

OptionProbability

Estonian Reform Party (RE)

Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE)

Fatherland (I)

Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK)

The Right (PP)

Estonia 200 (E200)

Social Democratic Party (SDE)

Estonian Centre Party (KE)

Estonian Greens (EER)

36

31

27

27

27

27

25

25

7

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Oct 27, 10:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6.2%chance

171806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

389

26

Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)

Apr 24, 9:34 PMMar 25, 12:59 AM

66.16%chance

9512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

715

Will New Zealand's National-led Coalition Government Be Limited to a Single Term?

Feb 25, 3:54 AMNov 30, 10:59 AM

34.77%chance

11483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

287

129

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15.39%chance

7228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

43

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

79%chance

8124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Which coalition will govern Thuringia after the next state election?

Mar 1, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

12117

OptionProbability

AfD + BSW

CDU + BSW + SPD

CDU + SPD

CDU + Left + BSW

Left + SPD + Greens

None by 2031

CDU + Left + SPD

CDU + SPD + Greens

AfD alone

Other

Left + BSW + SPD

AfD + CDU

18

14

11

9

9

8

7

6

6

5

3

3

Will the current Austrian coalition last until the end of the legislature period?

Nov 26, 9:30 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

50.62%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

988

Will "A high integrity/epistemics political coalition?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 15, 6:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

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