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Coalition News

Will the Current Spanish Coalition of PSOE+SUMAR Govern Spain Until 2027, Completing a Full 4-Year Term?

Dec 26, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.49%chance

275580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

878

China and USA form an AI coalition by EOY 2028

Jan 30, 6:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.43%chance

95271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

377

Which political parties will be part of the next dutch governing coalition?

Jul 6, 2:50 PMAug 1, 2:40 PM

83179

OptionProbability

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)

GroenLinks–PvdA

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)

JA21

Democrats 66 (D66)

Christian Union (CU)

Reformed Political Party (SGP)

Volt Netherlands

Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)

Party for the Animals (PvdD)

Socialist Party (SP)

Denk

Party for Freedom (PVV)

Forum for Democracy (FvD)

New Social Contract (NSC)

92

84

80

46

40

40

40

40

25

24

17

12

6

4

2

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.74%chance

192320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

416

Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?

Feb 24, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

242158

OptionProbability

CDU/CSU + SPD

SPD + Greens + Left

No coalition before 2030

CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens

CDU/CSU + Greens

CDU/CSU + AfD

CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP

CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP

Other

CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP

SPD + Greens

SPD + Greens + FDP

CDU/CSU + FDP

CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens + FDP

AfD alone

32

10

9

8

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?

Mar 1, 2:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

18.51%chance

261820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

104

Will a coalition of forces from Arab countries attack Israel before the end of Israel's current campaign in Gaza?

Nov 4, 10:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.1%chance

271437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1652

917

Will a Yesh Atid coalition lead Israel after next election

Nov 7, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.08%chance

16984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

106

Will an Arab party be in the next Israeli coalition?

Apr 24, 7:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.5%chance

8617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

80

Will New Zealand's National-led Coalition Government Be Limited to a Single Term?

Feb 25, 3:54 AMNov 30, 10:59 AM

54.07%chance

6227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

199

Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?

May 6, 3:08 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

54.99%chance

6144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will "The Minority Coalition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jan 19, 1:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.07%chance

170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

92

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