Codebase News

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83569

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

Dec 19, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

472267

OptionProbability

Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

Provided with a detailed strategy, execute a cyberattack against a hardened target.

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

May 27, 10:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.07%chance

121967

OptionVotes

YES

1887

530

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Nov 3, 2:03 PMJan 1, 8:43 AM

4.87%chance

141748

OptionVotes

YES

2498

478

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

YES

1009

826

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.1%chance

7546

OptionVotes

YES

316

Will Microsoft replace all C/C++ code with rust by 2030?

Dec 23, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.74%chance

8388

OptionVotes

YES

405

Will Wordpress partner with Project Glasswing by EOY2027?

Apr 7, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

6335

OptionVotes

YES

115

Any Top-5 Linux distro replace Xorg with XLibre (or any other alternative X-server) before 2029?

Jul 12, 9:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

5208

OptionVotes

YES

210

Wavelet-based electrostatics solver in molecular dynamics code? (Before Nov 2026)

Nov 9, 9:09 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

46.19%chance

3206

OptionVotes

YES

Which of ThePrimeagen’s "Token Apocalypse" predictions will happen first?

Jun 11, 12:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3133

OptionProbability

A company explicitly shuts down or suffers a massive public post-mortem due to unmanageable AI-generated codebase bloat ("Slop Cannon" failure).

Open-source token donations/quotas become a standard feature or charity trend.

Individual token stipends introduced (with leftover token value paid out as a bonus).

"Token Poker" or token-based Agile story estimation becomes a documented team process.

"Pair prompting" or management negotiation of team token limits becomes a widespread tech meme/role.

None of these happen by June 2027.

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.31%chance

5118

OptionVotes

YES

202

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In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Will Microsoft replace all C/C++ code with rust by 2030?

Will Wordpress partner with Project Glasswing by EOY2027?

Any Top-5 Linux distro replace Xorg with XLibre (or any other alternative X-server) before 2029?

Wavelet-based electrostatics solver in molecular dynamics code? (Before Nov 2026)

Which of ThePrimeagen’s "Token Apocalypse" predictions will happen first?

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

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