Codebase News

2026

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2030

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2032

Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement.

Allow an undergraduate student who has taken an introductory course to create a known CBRN threat.

Identify and develop proofs-of-concept for high-value cyberattack exploits against hardened targets without human intervention.

Can create content as persuasive as a 'country-wide change agent.'

None known to be reached by January 1, 2030

Enable the creation of a novel CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) attack vector.

NO

YES

NO

YES

NO

YES

YES

YES

NO

A company explicitly shuts down or suffers a massive public post-mortem due to unmanageable AI-generated codebase bloat ("Slop Cannon" failure).

Open-source token donations/quotas become a standard feature or charity trend.

Individual token stipends introduced (with leftover token value paid out as a bonus).

"Token Poker" or token-based Agile story estimation becomes a documented team process.

"Pair prompting" or management negotiation of team token limits becomes a widespread tech meme/role.