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Prediction markets for COF

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

7647173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3154

1257

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.84%chance

8713743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2349

1035

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

161847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?

Jul 9, 11:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.6%chance

211770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1681

443

Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 22, 11:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

231193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

779

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2027?

Jul 8, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.72%chance

171163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

864

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

79.81%chance

18787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1396

862

How many people will live in coffins with VR headsets in 2035

Apr 18, 10:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.9%chance

12542

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1439

720

Will Anthropic lose any of its cofounders by the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.15%chance

4420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?

Jul 9, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.95%chance

4390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

957

OU requires hechsher for plain coffee from regular shops by Dec 31, 2026?

Dec 3, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

Will COF-999 reach large scale production by proving economical to make and operate by 2030?

Oct 30, 1:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.02%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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