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Prediction markets for COF

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

7647173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3154

1257

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.65%chance

8613693

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2299

1040

Will the LDS church continue to prohibit coffee by 2030

Oct 16, 12:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

89.6%chance

372778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1825

814

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2035?

Dec 29, 8:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.17%chance

141714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

563

452

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

24.57%chance

151295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

571

Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?

Mar 19, 8:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.15%chance

171222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

902

Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 22, 11:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.24%chance

231132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

717

How many people will live in coffins with VR headsets in 2035

Apr 18, 10:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.9%chance

12542

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1439

720

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?

Jul 9, 11:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.26%chance

14498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

975

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

73.87%chance

16417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

950

Which of the following financial services/banking stocks will perform best in calendar year 2025?

Jan 10, 2:07 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2130

OptionProbability

Capital One ($COF)

JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)

Other

Bank of America ($BAC)

Citigroup ($C)

Wells Fargo ($WFC)

26

18

16

13

13

13

Will COF-999 reach large scale production by proving economical to make and operate by 2030?

Oct 30, 1:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.02%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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