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Prediction markets for COF

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.1%chance

7847516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1889

1308

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.84%chance

8713743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2349

1035

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

161847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?

Jul 9, 11:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.06%chance

221820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1731

424

Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 22, 11:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

231193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

779

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2027?

Jul 8, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.72%chance

171163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

864

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

73.13%chance

221116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

960

Will Anthropic lose any of its cofounders by the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

15895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?

Jul 9, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

6531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

888

Will my Jura C9 coffee maker survive five years?

Apr 19, 8:48 PMApr 19, 8:41 PM

62.83%chance

2300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

769

OU requires hechsher for plain coffee from regular shops by Dec 31, 2026?

Dec 3, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

Will COF-999 reach large scale production by proving economical to make and operate by 2030?

Oct 30, 1:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.23%chance

362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

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