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Prediction markets for COF

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.1%chance

7947536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1889

1308

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

93.53%chance

9215577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2891

993

Will Ghent fire Nathan Cofnas before 2028?

Aug 20, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.59%chance

3715489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1705

586

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?

Jul 9, 11:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.17%chance

273717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2082

321

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2027?

Jul 8, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.38%chance

272138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

926

Will Anthropic lose any of its cofounders by the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.35%chance

191976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2444

409

Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?

Dec 23, 10:24 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

161847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1700

588

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

83.33%chance

251814

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1649

805

Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 22, 11:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

231193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

779

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?

Jul 9, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.63%chance

101101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

366

Will my Jura C9 coffee maker survive five years?

Apr 19, 8:48 PMApr 19, 8:41 PM

62.83%chance

2300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

631

100

Will COF-999 reach large scale production by proving economical to make and operate by 2030?

Oct 30, 1:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.23%chance

362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

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