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Prediction markets for CoG
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
10.06%chance
826508702
OptionVotes
57414
10596
Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030
Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM
85.51%chance
282889
OptionVotes
1684
808
Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?
May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
36.9%chance
241876
OptionVotes
4120
3063
Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?
May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
13%chance
231261
OptionVotes
1713
838
Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?
Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM
36.12%chance
71161
OptionVotes
3991
2255
Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
78.53%chance
14792
OptionVotes
1118
952
Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.45%chance
22500
OptionVotes
989
987
Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?
Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
70.95%chance
14474
OptionVotes
1117
941
By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?
Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30.85%chance
26447
OptionVotes
1006
987
Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?
Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM
27.95%chance
9442
OptionVotes
1484
1113
Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
19.11%chance
19383
OptionVotes
1087
962
Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?
Jul 19, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
64.57%chance
1350
OptionVotes
1350
741