Cognition AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

69114

9469

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.08%chance

105109530

OptionVotes

YES

3227

670

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.26%chance

346106670

OptionVotes

YES

5587

3474

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

28379

3002

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Aug 25, 8:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18%chance

13626401

OptionVotes

YES

1755

1341

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.42%chance

7521770

OptionVotes

YES

1188

900

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1311937

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.69%chance

216349

OptionVotes

YES

5359

1039

Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?

Aug 7, 6:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.54%chance

305941

OptionVotes

YES

3519

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 26, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

1250

964

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2195

OptionProbability

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection

llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean

AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

100

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get ASI before 2032?

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

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