Cognition AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

89425

8110

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

19.41%chance

111127721

OptionVotes

YES

1186

915

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

350107942

OptionVotes

YES

4159

4150

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Dec 21, 3:51 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.64%chance

7954185

OptionVotes

YES

1692

846

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

28550

2982

Will we get ASI before 2028?

Dec 31, 12:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.32%chance

7025591

OptionVotes

YES

2144

811

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

40.47%chance

7722660

OptionVotes

YES

1094

802

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1412037

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

216599

OptionVotes

YES

5609

1010

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 26, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

1250

964

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2195

OptionProbability

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection

llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean

AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

100

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will we get ASI before 2028?

Will we get ASI before 2032?

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

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