Cognition AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.91%chance

811504802

OptionVotes

YES

58014

10529

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.71%chance

339104484

OptionVotes

YES

5342

3569

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.32%chance

8791688

OptionVotes

YES

3128

676

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

27819

3071

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Aug 25, 8:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.25%chance

13325906

OptionVotes

YES

1646

1366

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22.32%chance

6420078

OptionVotes

YES

1426

822

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

14.22%chance

7118300

OptionVotes

YES

1758

796

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

614993

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

4453

1165

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163500

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2195

OptionProbability

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection

AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean

AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Will we get ASI before 2031?

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

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