Cognition AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

5080

3679

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Aug 25, 8:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.9%chance

13626316

OptionVotes

YES

1594

1378

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

24.64%chance

7020736

OptionVotes

YES

1308

858

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

18.23%chance

7319004

OptionVotes

YES

1415

862

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166460

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

4744

1120

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 26, 1:56 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

1250

964

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2195

OptionProbability

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection

llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean

AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

100

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Will we get ASI before 2031?

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

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