Cognition AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.84%chance

832515935

OptionVotes

YES

58313

10496

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

5080

3679

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Aug 25, 8:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

13526066

OptionVotes

YES

1448

1344

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22.19%chance

6920533

OptionVotes

YES

1433

820

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

18.23%chance

7319004

OptionVotes

YES

1415

862

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

31.86%chance

566826

OptionVotes

YES

1171

870

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

4744

1120

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163560

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2195

OptionProbability

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection

llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean

AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

100

Cognition AI News

Prediction markets for Cognition AI

Prediction markets for Cognition AI

Prediction markets for Cognition AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Will we get ASI before 2031?

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Latest stories