Cognition AI News

Microsoft Prepared to Walk Away From OpenAI Equity Talks

1 month ago

OpenAI’s $3 Billion Windsurf Deal Collapses; Google Pays $2.4 Billion to License Tech and Hire CEO, Cognition AI Acquires Remainder

19 days ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.62%chance

792419119

OptionVotes

YES

25144

17456

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

6451

596

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.9%chance

33599775

OptionVotes

YES

4861

3188

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23%chance

7879649

OptionVotes

YES

1007

964

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

25533

3383

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

15.33%chance

2529465

OptionVotes

YES

23497

4256

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.26%chance

6218979

OptionVotes

YES

1031

904

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

15%chance

307794

OptionVotes

YES

2286

457

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

594589

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.61%chance

162204

OptionVotes

YES

2981

1492

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

May 7, 9:30 PMDec 30, 9:09 PM

18.71%chance

231420

OptionVotes

YES

208

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Oct 31, 5:12 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2195

OptionProbability

Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection

AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean

AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

Cognition AI News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Cognition AI

Prediction markets for Cognition AI

Prediction markets for Cognition AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Aging cured by 2040 if AGI by 2030?

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Latest stories