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Prediction markets for Cognition Labs

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.03%chance

738853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2588

1201

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.69%chance

216349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5359

1039

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.57%chance

4900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

571

Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?

Mar 4, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

10314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will early transformative AIs primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:57 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

54%chance

12264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

141

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will Cognition Labs (Devin) have an exit > $6bn before 2027?

May 14, 5:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.05%chance

439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

89

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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