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Top stories

Paradigm Raises $5 Million, Launches AI-Powered Spreadsheet to Public

Paradigm Raises $5 Million, Launches AI-Powered Spreadsheet to Public

Authors

13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Cognition

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48915

11661

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

85.51%chance

282889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1684

808

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.8%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4131

3056

Is 'Neuro-Cognitive Friction' the primary Great Filter stopping multi-planetary expansion?

Nov 24, 7:07 PMDec 31, 6:28 PM

60.39%chance

71533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

810

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13%chance

231261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1713

838

Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.53%chance

14792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

987

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1113

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025?

Nov 9, 5:50 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

35.29%chance

4356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1354

739

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.44%chance

12174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

993

Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?

Jul 19, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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