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Top stories

OpenAI’s $3 Billion Windsurf Deal Collapses; Google Pays $2.4 Billion to License Tech and Hire CEO, Cognition AI Acquires Remainder

OpenAI’s $3 Billion Windsurf Deal Collapses; Google Pays $2.4 Billion to License Tech and Hire CEO, Cognition AI Acquires Remainder

Authors

58

20 days ago

Goldman Sachs Rolls Out AI Assistant to 10,000 Employees, Pilots Autonomous Coder Devin, AI Drafts 95% of IPO Prospectus

Goldman Sachs Rolls Out AI Assistant to 10,000 Employees, Pilots Autonomous Coder Devin, AI Drafts 95% of IPO Prospectus

Authors

14

23 days ago

AI Startup Cognition Raises $300M at $10B Valuation; Armada and Crusoe Secure $131M and $1B for AI Infrastructure

AI Startup Cognition Raises $300M at $10B Valuation; Armada and Crusoe Secure $131M and $1B for AI Infrastructure

Authors

5

10 days ago

Prediction markets for Cognition

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

85.51%chance

282889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1684

808

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.8%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4131

3056

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13%chance

221161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1713

838

Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.53%chance

14792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.48%chance

21450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

939

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

987

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1113

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025?

Nov 9, 5:50 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

38.87%chance

3256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

797

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.44%chance

12174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

993

Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?

Jul 19, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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