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Top stories

Paradigm Raises $5 Million, Launches AI-Powered Spreadsheet to Public

Paradigm Raises $5 Million, Launches AI-Powered Spreadsheet to Public

Authors

13

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Cognition

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Nov 15, 10:15 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

85.51%chance

282889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1684

808

Will Cognition raise at a $70B+ valuation in 2026?

Oct 28, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

122590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

722

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.64%chance

181549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

321

Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.4%chance

171505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

615

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM

36.06%chance

81166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3996

2252

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.45%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

987

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

987

Will someone win the Healthspan XPRIZE of 101m restoring muscle, cognition, immune function by minimum 10yrs by 2030?

Nov 29, 11:58 PMDec 7, 7:59 AM

27.95%chance

9442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1113

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?

Jul 19, 7:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.57%chance

1350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

741

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