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Prediction markets for Cohesity

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 1, 4:00 AM

15.39%chance

468196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1305

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Who would win if Ethiopia went to war against Eritrea and its ally,The Tigray Defense Force (TDF) ?

Feb 20, 1:36 PMDec 31, 1:34 PM

92664

OptionProbability

Eritrean Defense Forces and Tigray Defense Force will win the Fight.

Ethiopian Defense Force will win the Fight

It will be stalemate

71

16

13

Will a new regime be installed in Iran before April 1st?

Mar 3, 7:40 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

1.69%chance

232303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

763

13

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Mar 2, 10:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.18%chance

331279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

111094

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

38

28

11

8

7

5

2

2

Did either of the Bondi shooters ever attend a pro-Palestine protest?

Mar 1, 12:10 PMDec 20, 11:59 PM

39%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.05%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

How should I plan what college to attend? (Current high schooler, 100M+ bounty)

Jan 4, 6:53 AM

00

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