OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Santa is rigged
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Groundhog Day is rigged
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
John McAfee didn't kill himself
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
The CIA killed JFK
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Bush did 9/11
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Israel killed JFK
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Princess Diana was assassinated
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Human didnt evolve from apes
Exercise is bad for your health
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
91
90
89
85
84
80
76
75
74
74
71
70
69
67
55
52
51
50
46
46
44
42
42
41
40
40
39
39
38
38
37
35
35
34
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
JD Vance
Ted Cruz
Vermin Supreme
Jill Stein
JB Pritzker
Pete Buttigieg
Andy Beshear
Nikki Haley
Corey Booker
Spencer Cox
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Gretchen Whitmer
Tulsi Gabbard
Glenn Youngkin
Ron DeSantis
Vermin Supreme - NA REMAKING
Brian Schatz
Robert F Kennedy Jr
Kamala Harris
Josh Hawley
Greg Abbott
Cornel West
Tim Walz
Marianne Williamson
Adam Schiff
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Ro Khanna
Vivek Ramaswamy
Jared Polis
Katie Britt
John Ossoff
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Mitch Landrieu
Tim Scott
Amy Klobuchar
Raphael Warnock
Brian Kemp
Stephen A. Smith
Wes Moore
Scott Perry
Andy Kim
Elise Stefanik
Mark Cuban
Nicole Shanahan
Donald Trump, Jr.
Steve Bannon
Tammy Duckworth
Byron Donalds
Martin O'Malley
Chris Sununu
Marty Walsh
Erika Kirk
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
Kristi Noem
Michael Bloomberg
Lauren Boebert
Matt Gaetz
Chris Christie
Elizabeth Warren
Andrew Yang
John Fetterman
Roy Cooper
Katie Porter
Donald Trump
Elon Musk
Mike Pompeo
Daniel "Keemstar" Keem
Ron Paul
Cenk Uygur
Mike Pence
Bernie Sanders
Ilhan Omar
Michelle Obama
Taylor Swift
Hillary Clinton
Chuck Norris
Joe Biden
Samuel L. Jackson
Mark Fischbach
Jimmy Carter
Mickey Mouse
93
85
81
77
72
69
68
67
66
65
61
59
55
55
55
54
52
51
50
48
47
42
41
41
39
37
37
34
33
32
32
31
31
31
28
27
26
25
25
25
24
22
22
21
20
20
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
12
11
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
United Kingdom
Japan
Canada
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
UAE
Italy
Israel
Netherlands
Qatar
Vatican City
Malaysia
United Arab Emirates
Switzerland
France
Turkiye
India
China
Germany
Ukraine
Hungary
Argentina
Russia
NA
Australia
Mexico
Poland
Brazil
Belgium
Singapore
Spain
Serbia
Indonesia
Fiji
South Africa
El Salvador
Ireland
Perú
Vietnam
Denmark
Pakistan
North Korea
Palestine
Nigeria
Sweden
Ethiopia
Any Central Asian country besides Russia
Taiwan
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
90
74
71
71
70
67
66
61
54
38
37
36
36
31
31
27
27
27
25
25
23
23
22
20
19
19
18
17
16
14
13
8
8
7
OptionProbability
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya
Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended
Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_
Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council
Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators
Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it
Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).
add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council
Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil
Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come
Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined
ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)
ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council
DUPLICATE - NA
ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.
ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)
ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered
ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)
ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals
Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event
Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)
Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council
Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze
Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)
Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible
Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.
Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it
Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana
Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council
Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024
Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot
Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb
Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse
Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)
Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate
Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly
Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council
Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council
97
95
95
94
94
93
91
87
84
81
79
79
77
77
73
71
71
70
69
69
69
67
66
65
65
61
60
56
55
55
55
54
53
53
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
48
48
47
47
44
42
42
41
34
32
32
26
25
23
18
15
11
OptionProbability
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature
Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024? https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-wokeness-recede-significantly
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison? https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025
100
100
100
100
100
69
57
35
32
19
8
7
2
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
EU
NA
80
20
OptionProbability
Dene-Yeniseian (language family that includes both Na-Dene and Yeniseian languages)
Austro-Tai (language family that includes both Austronesian and Kra-Dai languages)
Italo-Celtic (an IE subfamily that includes both Latin and a Celtic language, but no languages from other major extant IE families)
Je-Tupi-Carib (language family that includes both Je, Tupi and Carib languages)
Pontic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Northwest Caucasian languages)
Paleo-Balkan (an IE subfamily that includes all of: Albanian, Ilyrian, Daco-Thracian, Hellenic, Phrygian. Can also include Armenian, but no languages from other major extant IE families)
Uralo-Siberian (language family that includes Uralic, Yukaghir and Eskaleut)
Altaic (or any other language family containing both Turkic, Tungusic and Mongolic languages)
Indo-Uralic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Uralic languages)
Proto-World (all known languages in the world are proven to belong to the same macrofamily)
88
80
56
54
43
40
34
27
25
6
OptionVotes
NO
YES
105
95
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100
