CoinFlip News

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

2+ red cards in any match

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

Mexico survives group stage

Canada survives group stage

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Team finishes match with 9 players

French-born player scores against France

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

“Puto” chant at match

Referee falls down

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Neymar plays in a match

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

3+ penalty shootout

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

Trump still alive at end of final match

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

20+ penalty goals

Over 10.5 red cards

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Trump attends match

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Players cleat falls off their foot

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

US scores in every single group stage match

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

Bottle thrown on field

South American team reaches semi-final

Champion is unbeaten

Champion is a first place group stage winner

2+ European countries reach top 4

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

Asian player misses penalty kick

Ronaldo gets in referee face

Any host nation in quarter final

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

Asian player gets the red card

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Messi gets a yellow card

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

No red cards issued in the Final match

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds

Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

US goes further than Mexico

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Over 14.5 own goals scored

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Messi scores more goals than Mbappe

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Team loses after leading 2-0

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

Someone escorted off field shirtless

More own goals than red cards in tourney

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

Player tears their ACL

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Elon Musk attends match

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Messi to score a free kick

Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

2 UEFA teams in final

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Betting scandal reported

Spain goes further than France

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

Goal scored within 1st minute

VAR overturns second yellow card

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Flares in stands during match in USA

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

30+ penalty goals

USA player gets the red card

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

Disruption at Iran match

Canada goes further than US

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

Freddy attends the final match

Team captain gets red card

5+ hat tricks

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Winning team has a foreign manager

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Bald person gets the red card

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

World Cup winner to never trail in a match

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Messi scores on every game he plays

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Player gets spat on during match

25+ people arrested at stadium

Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

Salt Bae attending a match

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

Any match is canceled or postponed

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

Ronaldo does not start

England loses on penalties

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Goal scored from own half

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Fans invade field during match

Player throws captains armband

Headbutt during match

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

King Charles attends match

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Another match with 3+ red cards

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Major security incident

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

15+ cards in any match

Asia team reaches semi final

Trump attends 3 or more games

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

Bonnie Blue attending a match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Match is forfeited

Trump dancing at match

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

10+ goals in any match

Player bit during match

Football is coming home?

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

Team gets removed or disqualified

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

USA plays Iran

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Player suffers cardiac arrest

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Players / members of team attempt to defect

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

Ronaldo does jerkin move

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

Player shits in the pants during match

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

Player dies during World Cup

All 3 host countries win the opener

Ronaldo scores before Messi

4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match

Yudkowsky Attends

Two people make intense eye contact for 60 seconds without smiling or laughing

Aella Attends

Mana is exchanged for goods

Mana is exchanged for services

There will be more than one reporter

Someone attends in a partial fursuit

Smores are consumed

Someone wears a suit and tie

There are at least five people talking after 5am

Trump golfs the weekend of the conference

Barak sells/offers something at night market

Standard (not RPS) poker tournament

Someone does the 6 7 thing with their hands in front of Eliezer Yudkowsky and he clearly sees it

Someone cries

>4 people group hug

10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend

Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference

Albie gets hugs from at least 5 different people

Someone holds a kabbalat shabbat

cuddle puddle of >5

Someone gets banned from manifest

More than five (non-admin) mods in attendance

Someone gets a job offer at the conference

Someone does something to make an option resolve Yes and later regrets it

All official @ManifoldSports World Cup markets for games played during the conference auto-resolve without issues

Attendance is higher than last year

There is a Karaoke Event

There will be a marshmallow fight

Someone gets a boyfriend at the conference

Someone previously opposed to the Effective Altruism movement is convinced to support it instead

@Zoli hosts a wrestling event

A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial

A billionaire shows up

one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs

Someone breakdances competently

Someone takes the "Giving What We Can" pledge

A session receives more than 2x RSVPs than the session location’s listed capacity

Analytic Philosophy vs. Rationalism panel happens

someone gets convinced to start writing on substack

Someone adds >= 10k liquidity to this market

7 or more people attend Sunday Mass with @Austin

there will be someone with a friend AI necklace

Malcolm Collins attends

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$10

10 or more markets are created and resolved within an hour (popups)

Someone writes a hit piece

Someone adds >= 20k liquidity to this market

Someone gets a girlfriend at the conference

Someone changes Robin Hanson's mind (verified by Hanson) - NA if he doesn't attend

Someone has a manifold crane logo tattoo

RPS Poker Tournament

BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference

There is a Costume Contest

CFTC or other prediction market regulator appears (may be an employee)

Someone rickrolls Eliezer Yudkowsky

At least 3 Norwegian people attend Manifest.

There is a New York Times reporter present, like Manifest 2023

Someone loses at least 50% of one eyebrow

Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)

Someone loses at least 25% of their total eyebrow mass

There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher

Scott Alexander mentions Tyler Cowen in public (no private convo)

Prostitution for mana occurs (over 10k mana)

@ian finally reveals what his new middle name is

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$50

Someone attends in a full fursuit

Dwarkesh reveals who his "biggest guest yet" was going to be

There is an orgy

An article about the conference appears in the New York Times within one week of the conference's closing

Someone breaks an arm

Someone who previously did not belive that Tiramisu is cake is convinced otherwise

Runs out of Huel/Soylent

A pope attends

There is more than one orgy

There will be a Worldcoin Orb

Someone does coinflips and gets tails 7 times in a row

Destiny joins Manifold and bets on this market

Polymarket creates a market related to manifest

Someone finally sets up a passable ball pit

The conference is cancelled

Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth

Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders

ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)

Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ

ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya

Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council

Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons

Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council

Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council

Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election

Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council

Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets

Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest

Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)

Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles

Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb

Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market

Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%

Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users

Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended

Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_

Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council

Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators

Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund

Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it

Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).

add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council

Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil

Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come

Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined

ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)

ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council

DUPLICATE - NA

ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.

ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)

ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered

ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)

ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals

Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event

Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)

Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council

Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze

Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)

Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible

Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.

Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it

Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana

Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council

Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024

Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot

Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb

Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse

Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)

Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate

Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly

Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council

No publicly known employment by EOY 2026

Fraudster

Resolves 50% if Ellison marries SBF in 2026, otherwise, resolves to coinflip

A frontier AI lab (according to @Bayesian if ambiguous)

An organization that is mostly funded by charitable donations

volunteering / unpaid-only role

Big Tech

Starts a for-profit company

Starts a non-profit company

Prison guard

Manifold employee

Academia

NO

NO

NO