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Prediction markets for Collaboration with Base

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

404363

OptionProbability

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Earbuds

Other

Pen

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

Watch

Wearable badge

34

27

24

15

0

0

0

0

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

162610

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030-2034

2025

42

19

17

10

9

4

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will Manifold partner with the Roman Empire by EOY 4000?

Feb 9, 1:55 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9%chance

231495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2132

776

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

7.18%chance

12858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

395

76

When will Ben Stokes give up the Test Captaincy

Jul 5, 9:25 AMJul 6, 9:24 AM

6776

OptionProbability

Other

Feb - April 2026

May 2026

January 2026

August 2025

November 2025

73

11

8

6

1

1

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.15%chance

6217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

301

84

Which day of the week will Drake release Iceman album

Mar 9, 7:20 AMDec 31, 7:17 AM

7164

OptionProbability

Friday

Tuesday

Sunday

Monday

Wednesday

Thursday

Saturday

72

9

4

4

4

4

4

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.69%chance

6123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

79

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Jun 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

378

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2026-2027

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

16

15

15

14

14

14

14

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

Jan 22, 5:20 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

37.61%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

78

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