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Prediction markets for Collat

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30%chance

4922110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

871

Will the Collatz Conjecture (3x+1 problem) be solved before 2030?

Dec 27, 7:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.61%chance

645283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

895

Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?

Jul 5, 7:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.46%chance

363986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

973

946

Does the Collatz sequence reach 1 for all starting points below 10^100?

Dec 25, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.16%chance

102642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3219

312

Is the Collatz conjecture true?

Sep 8, 5:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

82.48%chance

362444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

679

Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before the Collatz Conjecture?

Dec 24, 8:31 PMDec 26, 8:31 PM

72.75%chance

181283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

612

Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?

Dec 22, 10:11 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

22.09%chance

16934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

Mar 17, 4:29 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3.14%chance

7668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

626

67

What will be the first published counterexample to Collatz conjecture?

Apr 14, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10472

OptionProbability

Collatz conjecture is true

Other

42

I predict Yev will sell his stake in #1.

63728127

No loans :-(

85

12

1

1

1

1

If the Collatz conjecture is false, what is the binary logarithm of the first published counterexample, or first published upper bound?

Nov 19, 1:48 AMApr 20, 11:20 PM

48.96%chance

11418

OptionProbability

NO

YES

479

116

In what year will the Collatz conjecture be solved?

Aug 13, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5315

OptionProbability

2051+

2041-2045

2036-2040

2046-2050

2031-2035

2026-2030

47

14

12

12

11

5

Will there be a trend spike for the term "collatz" before 2027?

Jan 17, 2:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.47%chance

7240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

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