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Prediction markets for Collate

Will the Collatz Conjecture (3x+1 problem) be solved before 2030?

Dec 27, 7:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.73%chance

769680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

979

Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?

Jul 5, 7:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.31%chance

404296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

947

Does the Collatz sequence reach 1 for all starting points below 10^100?

Dec 25, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.26%chance

102662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3239

310

Is the Collatz conjecture true?

Sep 8, 5:10 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

82.48%chance

362444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

679

Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before the Collatz Conjecture?

Dec 24, 8:31 PMDec 26, 8:31 PM

69.53%chance

191333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

662

Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?

Dec 22, 10:11 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

20.36%chance

191045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

Mar 17, 4:29 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

3.14%chance

7668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

626

67

If the Collatz conjecture is false, what is the binary logarithm of the first published counterexample, or first published upper bound?

Nov 19, 1:48 AMApr 20, 11:20 PM

61%chance

12545

OptionProbability

NO

YES

525

78

What will be the first published counterexample to Collatz conjecture?

Apr 14, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10472

OptionProbability

Collatz conjecture is true

Other

42

I predict Yev will sell his stake in #1.

63728127

No loans :-(

85

12

1

1

1

1

In what year will the Collatz conjecture be solved?

Aug 13, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10436

OptionProbability

2051+

2026-2030

2036-2040

2041-2045

2031-2035

2046-2050

25

22

17

16

13

7

Will there be a trend spike for the term "collatz" before 2027?

Jan 17, 2:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

58.64%chance

11301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

Will the BB(6) machine be found before the Weak Collatz Conjecture is resolved?

Jul 25, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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